气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO relationships in a changed climate

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05641-y
	Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO relationships in a changed climate
	Marathe S.; Terray P.; Karumuri A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	We explore the current (1958–2005 period) and near future (2006–2050 period) teleconnections between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM), and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) as simulated in historical and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) simulations of 32 coupled models that participated in the phase five of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A set of 16 CMIP5 models out of 32 models, which perform best to simulate tropical climate variability in recent decades, is first selected using a robust method based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis for detailed analysis. Most of these models show modest capability in reproducing the seasonal cycle of ENSO types in the current period. Further, amplitude of Indian Ocean (IO) modes is overestimated by the 16 models along with large inter-model spread. Based on these results, a subset of 9 models is formed, which simulate a realistic seasonal phase-locking of ENSO for a robust assessment of future teleconnections. No significant change in El Niño amplitude is detected in near future. However, the IOBM is projected to be weaker during late spring and early summer. The IOD is projected to be stronger during boreal summer in the future relative to the current period. We also investigate if there are any changes from historical to RCP 8.5 simulations in the strength of the IO negative feedback on ENSO with a multiple linear regression approach. The IO negative feedback strengthens significantly in the RCP8.5 scenario due to the increasing role of IOBM in speeding the transition from El Niño to La Niña, despite its reduction of amplitude. In contrast, IOD loses its predictive value in the future projections. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	CMIP5; ENSO; IOBM; IOD; Lead correlations; Teleconnections
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183297
作者单位	Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India; CNRS‑IRD‑MNHN, LOCEAN Laboratory, Sorbonne Universités (UPMC, Univ Paris 06), 4 Place Jussieu, Paris, 75005, France; Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hyderabad, Hyderabad, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marathe S.,Terray P.,Karumuri A.. Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO relationships in a changed climate[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Marathe S.,Terray P.,&Karumuri A..(2021).Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO relationships in a changed climate.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Marathe S.,et al."Tropical Indian Ocean and ENSO relationships in a changed climate".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).