气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation

CCPortal

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05638-7
	Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation
	Risser M.D.; Wehner M.F.; O’Brien J.P.; Patricola C.M.; O’Brien T.A.; Collins W.D.; Paciorek C.J.; Huang H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	855
结束页码	871
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	While various studies explore the relationship between individual sources of climate variability and extreme precipitation, there is a need for improved understanding of how these physical phenomena simultaneously influence precipitation in the observational record across the contiguous United States. In this work, we introduce a single framework for characterizing the historical signal (anthropogenic forcing) and noise (natural variability) in seasonal mean and extreme precipitation. An important aspect of our analysis is that we simultaneously isolate the individual effects of seven modes of variability while explicitly controlling for joint inter-mode relationships. Our method utilizes a spatial statistical component that uses in situ measurements to resolve relationships to their native scales; furthermore, we use a data-driven procedure to robustly determine statistical significance. In Part I of this work we focus on natural climate variability: detection is mostly limited to DJF and SON for the modes of variability considered, with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific–North American pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation exhibiting the largest influence. Across all climate indices considered, the signals are larger and can be detected more clearly for seasonal total versus extreme precipitation. We are able to detect at least some significant relationships in all seasons in spite of extremely large (> 95%) background variability in both mean and extreme precipitation. Furthermore, we specifically quantify how the spatial aspect of our analysis reduces uncertainty and increases detection of statistical significance while also discovering results that quantify the complex interconnected relationships between climate drivers and seasonal precipitation. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	El Niño/Southern Oscillation; Extreme value analysis; Natural variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; Pacific–North American pattern; Spatial statistics; Station data
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183283
作者单位	Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; Department of Statistics, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Risser M.D.,Wehner M.F.,O’Brien J.P.,et al. Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Risser M.D..,Wehner M.F..,O’Brien J.P..,Patricola C.M..,O’Brien T.A..,...&Huang H..(2021).Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Risser M.D.,et al."Quantifying the influence of natural climate variability on in situ measurements of seasonal total and extreme daily precipitation".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).