气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-020-05624-5
	Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)
	Chevuturi A.; Turner A.G.; Johnson S.; Weisheimer A.; Shonk J.K.P.; Stockdale T.N.; Senan R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	985
结束页码	1001
卷号	56 期号:2021-09-10
英文摘要	Accurate forecasting of variations in Indian monsoon precipitation and progression on seasonal time scales remains a challenge for prediction centres. We examine prediction skill for the seasonal-mean Indian summer monsoon and its onset in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5). We analyse summer hindcasts initialised on 1st of May, with 51 ensemble members, for the 36-year period of 1981–2016. We evaluate the hindcasts against the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation observations and the ECMWF reanalysis 5 (ERA5). The model has significant skill at forecasting dynamical features of the large-scale monsoon and local-scale monsoon onset tercile category one month in advance. SEAS5 shows higher skill for monsoon features calculated using large-scale indices compared to those at smaller scales. Our results also highlight possible model deficiencies in forecasting the all India monsoon rainfall. © 2021, Crown.
英文关键词	ECMWF; Forecast skill; Indian summer monsoon; Monsoon onset; SEAS5
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183281
作者单位	National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Met Office @Reading, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chevuturi A.,Turner A.G.,Johnson S.,et al. Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)[J],2021,56(2021-09-10).
APA	Chevuturi A..,Turner A.G..,Johnson S..,Weisheimer A..,Shonk J.K.P..,...&Senan R..(2021).Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5).Climate Dynamics,56(2021-09-10).
MLA	Chevuturi A.,et al."Forecast skill of the Indian monsoon and its onset in the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system 5 (SEAS5)".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-09-10(2021).