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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05676-1
	Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change
	He W.; Xie X.; Mei Y.; Wan S.; Zhao S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1105
结束页码	1129
卷号	56 期号:2021-11-12
英文摘要	Abrupt climate change has an important impact on sustainable economic and social development, as well as ecosystem. However, it is very difficult to predict abrupt climate changes because the climate system is a complex and nonlinear system. In the present paper, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is proposed as a new early warning signal for an abrupt climate change. The performance of NLLE as an early warning signal is first verified by those simulated abrupt changes based on four folding models. That is, NLLE in all experiments showed an almost monotonous increasing trend as a dynamic system approached its tipping point. For a well-studied abrupt climate change in North Pacific in 1976/1977, it is also found that NLLE shows an almost monotonous increasing trend since 1970 which give up to 6 years warning before the abrupt climate change. The limit of the predictability for a nonlinear dynamic system can be quantitatively estimated by NLLE, and lager NLLE of the system means less predictability. Therefore, the decreasing predictability may be an effective precursor indicator for abrupt climate change. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Abrupt climate change; Early warning signal; Nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent; Predictability; Tipping point
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183260
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, 519082, China; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; LASG, Institute of Atmosphere Physics, Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing, 100029, China; Yangzhou Meteorological Office, Yangzhou, 225009, China; National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	He W.,Xie X.,Mei Y.,et al. Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change[J],2021,56(2021-11-12).
APA	He W.,Xie X.,Mei Y.,Wan S.,&Zhao S..(2021).Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-11-12).
MLA	He W.,et al."Decreasing predictability as a precursor indicator for abrupt climate change".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-11-12(2021).