气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05667-2
	Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations
	Bozkurt D.; Bromwich D.H.; Carrasco J.; Rondanelli R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1285
结束页码	1301
卷号	56 期号:2021-11-12
英文摘要	This study presents near future (2020–2044) temperature and precipitation changes over the Antarctic Peninsula under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5). We make use of historical and projected simulations from 19 global climate models (GCMs) participating in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We compare and contrast GCMs projections with two groups of regional climate model simulations (RCMs): (1) high resolution (15-km) simulations performed with Polar-WRF model forced with bias-corrected NCAR-CESM1 (NC-CORR) over the Antarctic Peninsula, (2) medium resolution (50-km) simulations of KNMI-RACMO21P forced with EC-EARTH (EC) obtained from the CORDEX-Antarctica. A further comparison of historical simulations (1981–2005) with respect to ERA5 reanalysis is also included for circulation patterns and near-surface temperature climatology. In general, both RCM boundary conditions represent well the main circulation patterns of the historical period. Nonetheless, there are important differences in projections such as a notable deepening and weakening of the Amundsen Sea Low in EC and NC-CORR, respectively. Mean annual near-surface temperatures are projected to increase by about 0.5–1.5 ∘C across the entire peninsula. Temperature increase is more substantial in autumn and winter (∼ 2 ∘C). Following opposite circulation pattern changes, both EC and NC-CORR exhibit different warming rates, indicating a possible continuation of natural decadal variability. Although generally showing similar temperature changes, RCM projections show less warming and a smaller increase in melt days in the Larsen Ice Shelf compared to their respective driving fields. Regarding precipitation, there is a broad agreement among the simulations, indicating an increase in mean annual precipitation (∼ 5 to 10%). However, RCMs show some notable differences over the Larsen Ice Shelf where total precipitation decreases (for RACMO) and shows a small increase in rain frequency. We conclude that it seems still difficult to get consistent projections from GCMs for the Antarctic Peninsula as depicted in both RCM boundary conditions. In addition, dominant and common changes from the boundary conditions are largely evident in the RCM simulations. We argue that added value of RCM projections is driven by processes shaped by finer local details and different physics schemes that are introduced by RCMs, particularly over the Larsen Ice Shelf. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH, DE part of Springer Nature.
英文关键词	Added value; Antarctica; Climate change; Dynamical downscaling; Larsen Ice Shelf; Model evaluation; Temperature extremes
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183254
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Center for Climate and Resilience Research (CR)2, Santiago, Chile; Centro de Estudios Atmosféricos y Astroestadística, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Centro de Investigación y Gestión de Recursos Naturales, Universidad de Valparaíso, Valparaíso, Chile; Polar Meteorology Group, Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, United States; Centro de Investigación GAIA Antártica, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile; Department of Geophysics, University of Chile, Santiago, Chile
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bozkurt D.,Bromwich D.H.,Carrasco J.,et al. Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations[J],2021,56(2021-11-12).
APA	Bozkurt D.,Bromwich D.H.,Carrasco J.,&Rondanelli R..(2021).Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-11-12).
MLA	Bozkurt D.,et al."Temperature and precipitation projections for the Antarctic Peninsula over the next two decades: contrasting global and regional climate model simulations".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-11-12(2021).