气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-05680-5
	Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations
	Deo A.; Chand S.S.; Ramsay H.; Holbrook N.J.; McGree S.; Magee A.; Bell S.; Titimaea M.; Haruhiru A.; Malsale P.; Mulitalo S.; Daphne A.; Prakash B.; Vainikolo V.; Koshiba S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0930-7575
起始页码	1879
结束页码	1894
卷号	56 期号:2021-11-12
英文摘要	Southwest Pacific nations are among some of the worst impacted and most vulnerable globally in terms of tropical cyclone (TC)-induced flooding and accompanying risks. This study objectively quantifies the fractional contribution of TCs to extreme rainfall (hereafter, TC contributions) in the context of climate variability and change. We show that TC contributions to extreme rainfall are substantially enhanced during active phases of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and by El Niño conditions (particularly over the eastern southwest Pacific region); this enhancement is primarily attributed to increased TC activity during these event periods. There are also indications of increasing intensities of TC-induced extreme rainfall events over the past few decades. A key part of this work involves development of sophisticated Bayesian regression models for individual island nations in order to better understand the synergistic relationships between TC-induced extreme rainfall and combinations of various climatic drivers that modulate the relationship. Such models are found to be very useful for not only assessing probabilities of TC- and non-TC induced extreme rainfall events but also evaluating probabilities of extreme rainfall for cases with different underlying climatic conditions. For example, TC-induced extreme rainfall probability over Samoa can vary from ~ 95 to ~ 75% during a La Niña period, if it coincides with an active or inactive phase of the MJO, and can be reduced to ~ 30% during a combination of El Niño period and inactive phase of the MJO. Several other such cases have been assessed for different island nations, providing information that have potentially important implications for planning and preparing for TC risks in vulnerable Pacific Island nations. © 2021, The Author(s).
英文关键词	El Nino Southern oscillation; Extreme rainfall; Madden Julian oscillation; Southwest Pacific island nations; Tropical cyclones
来源期刊	Climate Dynamics
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183239
作者单位	School of Engineering, Information Technology and Physical Sciences, Federation University Australia, Mt Helen Campus, Mt Helen, VIC, Australia; CSIRO, Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia; Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia; Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia; Centre for Water, Climate and Land, The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW, Australia; Samoa Meteorological Services, Apia, Samoa; Solomon Islands Meteorological Service, Honiara, Solomon Islands; Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, Apia, Samoa; Fiji Meteorological Services, Nadi, Fiji; Tonga Meteorological Services, Nukuʻalofa, Tonga; Palau International Coral Reef Centre, Koror, Palau
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deo A.,Chand S.S.,Ramsay H.,et al. Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations[J],2021,56(2021-11-12).
APA	Deo A..,Chand S.S..,Ramsay H..,Holbrook N.J..,McGree S..,...&Koshiba S..(2021).Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations.Climate Dynamics,56(2021-11-12).
MLA	Deo A.,et al."Tropical cyclone contribution to extreme rainfall over southwest Pacific Island nations".Climate Dynamics 56.2021-11-12(2021).