气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Diagnosing the weather and climate features that influence pasture growth in Northern Australia

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2019.01.003
	Diagnosing the weather and climate features that influence pasture growth in Northern Australia
	Brown J.N.; Ash A.; MacLeod N.; McIntosh P.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	1407
结束页码	1432
卷号	24
英文摘要	Northern Australian agricultural industries are vulnerable to a highly variable climate. Year-to-year fluctuations in rainfall strongly affect pasture growth and increase the challenge of matching forage supply with stock numbers. A case study of climate drivers of pasture growth is conducted for the extensively-grazed cattle enterprises in the semi-arid tropics of north-eastern Australia. By assessing past climate, we explore which aspects of climate variability drive variations in pasture growth to inform effective developments in grazing management tools. Insights gained from these investigations could be important to the understanding of how we might integrate dynamical climate models into the decision making process. Currently, dynamical climate models are limited in their ability to provide skilful 6 month forecasts of total rainfall at the paddock scale. In their favour, we show that variables other than total rainfall are more important in forecasting pasture growth. Predicting total rainfall is dominated by the need to effectively predict the extreme events. We demonstrate that these extreme events do not significantly influence pasture growth as much of the rain received during extreme rainfall events is lost as run-off. A forecast would ideally be able to predict the number of rain days that fall when the soil is dry; incorporate the moisture content of soil at the beginning of the season; determine the likelihood of an early break to the wet season resulting in late winter and/or spring rainfall; and establish the interaction of El Niño Southern Oscillation with other climate modes. We stress however, that potential pasture growth is only one aspect of complex farm management decisions. Optimal decision making must also incorporate factors such as grazing management, cattle condition and longer time horizons as part of a whole of farm approach. © 2019
英文关键词	ENSO dynamical seasonal climate models pasture cattle
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183221
作者单位	CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Hobart, Australia; CSIRO Agriculture and Food, Brisbane, Australia; CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Brown J.N.,Ash A.,MacLeod N.,et al. Diagnosing the weather and climate features that influence pasture growth in Northern Australia[J],2019,24.
APA	Brown J.N.,Ash A.,MacLeod N.,&McIntosh P..(2019).Diagnosing the weather and climate features that influence pasture growth in Northern Australia.Climate Risk Management,24.
MLA	Brown J.N.,et al."Diagnosing the weather and climate features that influence pasture growth in Northern Australia".Climate Risk Management 24(2019).