气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2019.04.001
	Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London
	Hall J.W.; Harvey H.; Manning L.J.
发表日期	2019
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	1519
结束页码	1540
卷号	24
英文摘要	Protecting the UK's capital city from global mean sea level rise that the IPCC considers plausible over the next centuries would require a combination of a new tidal barrier, high volume pumping and incremental raising of the system of flood walls and embankments. Using a risk and decision analysis methodology that is transferable to other vulnerable coastal cities of high strategic economic and political importance, we quantify sequences of adaptations that would be needed to protect London from flooding by the sea to the year 2300. Two critical adaptation thresholds are identified: (i) when mechanical pumping has to be provided alongside the moveable tidal barrier in order to drain the River Thames and (ii) when a permanently closed barrier with pumping to remove all of the river flow becomes the only viable means of avoiding flooding. We test the sensitivity of the costs and benefits of alternative adaptation pathways to a wide range of sea level rise trajectories. The adaptation pathway that most cost-effectively and robustly maintains risk at a tolerable level involves moving the Thames Barrier 17 km towards the sea if mean sea level rises 2 m above present levels. Our methodology provides a quantitative risk-based implementation of an adaptation pathway. © 2019 The Authors
英文关键词	Adaptation; Adaptation pathways; Adaptation tipping points; Decision analysis; Flood risk; Sea level rise
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183218
作者单位	Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom; Bill Harvey Associates, United Kingdom; School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hall J.W.,Harvey H.,Manning L.J.. Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London[J],2019,24.
APA	Hall J.W.,Harvey H.,&Manning L.J..(2019).Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London.Climate Risk Management,24.
MLA	Hall J.W.,et al."Adaptation thresholds and pathways for tidal flood risk management in London".Climate Risk Management 24(2019).