气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): 21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park Service

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2020.100211
	21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park Service
	Van Dusen P.; Rajagopalan B.; Lawrence D.J.; Condon L.E.; Smillie G.; Gangopadhyay S.; Pruitt T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	2651
结束页码	2665
卷号	28
英文摘要	Assessing flood risk using stationary flood frequency analysis techniques is commonplace. However, it is increasingly evident that the stationarity assumption of these analyses does not hold as anthropogenic climate change could shift a site's hydroclimate beyond the range of historical behaviors. We employ nonstationary flood frequency models using the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to model changing flood risk for select seasons at twelve National Parks across the U.S. In this GEV model, the location and/or scale parameters of the distribution are allowed to change as a function of time-variable covariates. We use historical precipitation and modeled flows from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), a land-surface model that simulates land–atmosphere fluxes using water and energy balance equations, as covariates to fit a best nonstationary GEV model to each site. We apply climate model projections of precipitation and VIC flows to these models to obtain future flood probability estimates. Our model results project a decrease in flood risk for sites in the southwestern U.S. region and an increase in flood risk for sites in northern and eastern regions of the U.S. for the selected seasons. The methods and results presented will enable the NPS to develop strategies to ensure public safety and efficient infrastructure management and planning in a nonstationary climate. © 2020 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Flood risk
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183190
作者单位	Department of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate Change Response Program, National Park Service, Fort CollinsCO, United States; Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Water Resources Division, National Park Service, Fort CollinsCO, United States; Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Van Dusen P.,Rajagopalan B.,Lawrence D.J.,et al. 21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park Service[J],2020,28.
APA	Van Dusen P..,Rajagopalan B..,Lawrence D.J..,Condon L.E..,Smillie G..,...&Pruitt T..(2020).21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park Service.Climate Risk Management,28.
MLA	Van Dusen P.,et al."21st Century flood risk projections at select sites for the U.S. National Park Service".Climate Risk Management 28(2020).