| DOI | 10.1016/j.crm.2020.100233
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| Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions |
| Lorie M.; Neumann J.E.; Sarofim M.C.; Jones R.; Horton R.M.; Kopp R.E.; Fant C.; Wobus C.; Martinich J.; O'Grady M.; Gentile L.E.
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| 发表日期 | 2020
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| ISSN | 2212-0963
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| 起始页码 | 2617
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| 结束页码 | 2630
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| 卷号 | 29 |
| 英文摘要 | The National Coastal Property Model (NCPM) simulates flood damages resulting from sea level rise and storm surge along the contiguous U.S. coastline. The model also projects local-level investments in a set of adaptation measures under the assumption that these measures will be adopted when benefits exceed the costs over a 30-year period. However, it has been observed that individuals and communities often underinvest in adaptive measures relative to standard cost-benefit assumptions due to financial, psychological, sociopolitical, and technological factors. This study applies an updated version of the NCPM to incorporate improved cost-benefit tests and to approximate observed sub-optimal flood risk reduction behavior. The updated NCPM is tested for two multi-county sites: Virginia Beach, VA and Tampa, FL. Sub-optimal adaptation approaches slow the implementation of adaptation measures throughout the 100-year simulation and they increase the amount of flood damages, especially early in the simulation. The net effect is an increase in total present value cost of $1.1 to $1.3 billion (2015 USD), representing about a 10% increase compared to optimal adaptation approaches. Future calibrations against historical data and incorporation of non-economic factors driving adaptation decisions could prove useful in better understanding the impacts of continued sub-optimal behavior. © 2020 |
| 英文关键词 | Adaptation; Coastal flooding; Sea level rise |
| 来源期刊 | Climate Risk Management
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| 文献类型 | 期刊论文
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| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183178
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| 作者单位 | Abt Associates, 1881 Ninth Street, Suite 201, Boulder, CO 80302, United States; Industrial Economics, Inc., 2067 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02140, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW, Washington, DC, 20460, United States; P.O. Box 1000, 61 Route 9W PalisadesNY 10964, United States; Department of Earth & Planetary Sciences and Institute of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Rutgers University, 71 Dudley Road, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, United States; Lynker Technologies, 3002 Bluff Street, Suite 101, Boulder, CO 80301, United States
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推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714 |
Lorie M.,Neumann J.E.,Sarofim M.C.,et al. Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions[J],2020,29.
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| APA |
Lorie M..,Neumann J.E..,Sarofim M.C..,Jones R..,Horton R.M..,...&Gentile L.E..(2020).Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions.Climate Risk Management,29.
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| MLA |
Lorie M.,et al."Modeling coastal flood risk and adaptation response under future climate conditions".Climate Risk Management 29(2020).
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