气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2020.100258
	Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana
	Nyamekye A.B.; Nyadzi E.; Dewulf A.; Werners S.; Van Slobbe E.; Biesbroek R.G.; Termeer C.J.A.M.; Ludwig F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	3045
结束页码	3063
卷号	31
英文摘要	Rice farmers in Northern Ghana are susceptible to climate variability and change with its effects in the form of drought, water scarcity, erratic rainfall and high temperatures. In response, farmers resort to weather and seasonal forecast to manage uncertainties in decision-making. However, there is limited empirical research on how forecast lead time and probabilities influence farmer decision-making. In this study, we posed the overall question: how do rice farmers respond to forecast information with different probabilities and lead times? We purposively engaged 36 rice farmers (12 rainfed, 12 irrigated and 12 practising both) in Visually Facilitated Scenario Mapping Workshops (VFSMW) to explore how probabilities and lead times inform their decision-making. Results of the VFSMW showed rainfed rice farmers are most sensitive to forecast probabilities because of their over-reliance on rainfall. Also, an increase in forecast probability does not necessarily mean farmers will act. The decision to act based on forecast probability is dependent on the stage of the farming cycle. Also, seasonal forecast information provided at a 1 month lead time significantly informed farmer decision-making compared to a lead time of 2 or 3 months. Also, weather forecast provided at a lead time of 1 week is more useful for decision-making than at a 3 day or 1 day lead time. We conclude that communicating forecast information with their probabilities and at an appropriate lead time has the potential to help farmers manage risks and improve decision-making. We propose that climate services in Northern Ghana should aim at communicating weather and seasonal climate forecast information at 1 week and 1 month lead times respectively. Farmers should also adapt their decisions to the timing and probabilities of the forecast provided. © 2020
英文关键词	Climate services; Farmer decision-making; Forecast lead times; Forecast probability
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183155
作者单位	Public Administration and Policy Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Hollandseweg 1, KN Wageningen, 6706, Netherlands; Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, AA Wageningen, 6700, Netherlands; Kumasi Institute of Technology, Energy and Environment, Olusegun Obasanjo Road, Accra, P.O.BOX AT 720, Ghana; MDF West Africa, 124a Freetown Avenue, East Legon, Accra, PMB CT 357, Ghana; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Viale delle Terme di Caracalla, Roma RM, 00153, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nyamekye A.B.,Nyadzi E.,Dewulf A.,et al. Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana[J],2021,31.
APA	Nyamekye A.B..,Nyadzi E..,Dewulf A..,Werners S..,Van Slobbe E..,...&Ludwig F..(2021).Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana.Climate Risk Management,31.
MLA	Nyamekye A.B.,et al."Forecast probability, lead time and farmer decision-making in rice farming systems in Northern Ghana".Climate Risk Management 31(2021).