气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2020.100263
	Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections
	Kay A.L.; Rudd A.C.; Fry M.; Nash G.; Allen S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	3277
结束页码	3294
卷号	31
英文摘要	Potential future increases in flooding due to climate change need to be taken into consideration when designing flood defences or planning new infrastructure or housing developments. Existing guidance on climate change allowances in Great Britain was based on research that developed a sensitivity-based approach to estimating the impacts of climate change on flood peaks, which was applied with catchment-based hydrological models. Here, the sensitivity-based approach is applied with a national-scale grid-based hydrological model, producing modelled flood response surfaces for every river cell on a 1 km grid. This provides a nationally consistent assessment of the sensitivity of flood peaks across Britain to climatic changes. The flood response surfaces are then combined with the most recent climate change projections, UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18), to provide location-specific information on the potential range of impacts on floods across the country, for three flood return periods, three future time-slices and four emissions scenarios. An accompanying web-tool provides a convenient way to explore the large amount of data produced. Consideration is now being given to how to use the latest work to update guidance on climate change and flood peaks, including a workshop held to gather stakeholder views. © 2020 The Authors
英文关键词	Climate change; Flooding; Hydrological modelling; Probabilistic projections; UKCP18
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183154
作者单位	UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, OX10 8BB, United Kingdom; UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, United Kingdom; Environment Agency, Iceni House, Ipswich, IP3 9JD, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kay A.L.,Rudd A.C.,Fry M.,et al. Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections[J],2021,31.
APA	Kay A.L.,Rudd A.C.,Fry M.,Nash G.,&Allen S..(2021).Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections.Climate Risk Management,31.
MLA	Kay A.L.,et al."Climate change impacts on peak river flows: Combining national-scale hydrological modelling and probabilistic projections".Climate Risk Management 31(2021).