气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Distribution modelling and climate change risk assessment strategy for rare Himalayan Galliformes species using archetypal data abundant cohorts for adaptation planning

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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2020.100264
	Distribution modelling and climate change risk assessment strategy for rare Himalayan Galliformes species using archetypal data abundant cohorts for adaptation planning
	Bagaria P.; Thapa A.; Sharma L.K.; Joshi B.D.; Singh H.; Sharma C.M.; Sarma J.; Thakur M.; Chandra K.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	2693
结束页码	2713
卷号	31
英文摘要	In a macroecological approach, we have used the data abundant species or archetypal cohorts as proxies for the data deficient species, to model their distributions. Upon successful modelling, we assessed climate change impacts on their distribution in the Himalayan arc extending from the Indian borders in the west to the hills in Myanmar. Out of 34 Galliformes species occurring in the Himalayan arc, 21 species were retained in this study, rest were dropped due to very low occurrences. Best performing variables from the set of environmental variables (n = 36) consisting of topography, vegetation, soil, anthropogenic indices and bioclimatic factors were tested for collinearity. Ordination (PCA and NMDS) and clustering (hierarchical clustering, agnes, partitioning around medoids and k–means clustering) and Species Archetype Modelling (SAM) methods were performed for finding the archetypal cohorts among the species. The clusters were used for two different modelling frameworks- Species Distribution Models (SDMs) with a combination of biophysical and topographical parameters; and Bioclimatic Envelope Models (BEMs) with only bioclimatic variables. Predicted climate-driven changes in species ranges (year 2070, RCP 4.5 and 8.5) were assessed. The 21 species were clustered in four groups. Precipitation emerged as the overall significant driving factor for all the three clusters. Random Forest was the highest performing model across the clusters. Two cluster restricted to the eastern Himalayas were found to be the most affected in a climate change scenario. Cluster belonging to the western Himalayas was predicted to lose about 70% of its bioclimatic habitats in both the scenarios. In a first attempt, this study presents a novel approach towards distribution and climate change modelling for the rare Galliformes, using abundant Galliformes over a pan Himalayan scale. © 2020 The Authors
英文关键词	Bioclimatic envelope; Climate change; Cohort species; Ensemble species distribution modelling; Galliformes
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183150
作者单位	Zoological Survey of India, Prani Vigyan Bhawan, New Alipore, Kolkata, West Bengal 700053, India; Calcutta University, College Square, Kolkata, West Bengal 700073, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bagaria P.,Thapa A.,Sharma L.K.,et al. Distribution modelling and climate change risk assessment strategy for rare Himalayan Galliformes species using archetypal data abundant cohorts for adaptation planning[J],2021,31.
APA	Bagaria P..,Thapa A..,Sharma L.K..,Joshi B.D..,Singh H..,...&Chandra K..(2021).Distribution modelling and climate change risk assessment strategy for rare Himalayan Galliformes species using archetypal data abundant cohorts for adaptation planning.Climate Risk Management,31.
MLA	Bagaria P.,et al."Distribution modelling and climate change risk assessment strategy for rare Himalayan Galliformes species using archetypal data abundant cohorts for adaptation planning".Climate Risk Management 31(2021).