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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2021.100277
	Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model
	Choudhary J.S.; Mali S.S.; Naaz N.; Malik S.; Das B.; Singh A.K.; Srinivasa Rao M.; Bhatt B.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	3749
结束页码	3773
卷号	32
英文摘要	The peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is a poylphagous and serious insect pest of horticultural crops. The purpose of study was to understand the spatial and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of B. zonata in response to climate change-based variations in temperature across the India. To examine the likely possibilities of changes in abundance and distribution of B. zonata, temperature driven process based phenology models were linked with climatic data of multiple General Circulation Model (eight models) and climate change scenarios (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. The risk indices (establishment, generation, and activity index) were mapped and quantified the changes in respect to locations, scenarios, models and times (2050 & 2070). The risk indices results revealed that, 1.73 (0.8–1.0 establishment risk), 14.15 (>16 high abundance) and 59.69% (>8.0 generation per year) area is projected to be highly suitable for B. zonata regarding establishment, abundance and generation indices, respectively in India under current climatic conditions. In spite of decreased permanent establishment (Establishment Risk Index > 0.6) in future climatic conditions, it is predicted that abundance and generation indices would increase in all the locations of the country. The variation in the results due to use of multiple GCM-scenario combinations suggested that choice of GCM and scenario combinations have impact on future prediction of the species. Overall, results indicate that B. zonata would be significant threat to horticultural crops in India. Therefore, present findings are of immensly useful to provide important information to design integrated pest management strategies and phytosanitary measurements for local, regional and national level to restrain the insect pest activity across different layers. © 2021
英文关键词	Climate change; GCM; Pest forecasting model; Phenology model; Risk assessment
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183133
作者单位	ICAR-RCER, Farming System Research Centre for Hill and Plateau Region, Plandu, Ranchi, Jharkhand 834010, India; ICAR-Central Research Institute for Dryland Agriculture (CRIDA) Santoshnagar, Saidabad PO, Hyderabad, 500 059, India; ICAR-Research Complex for Eastern Region, ICAR Parisar, P. O. Bihar Veterinary College, Patna, Bihar 800 014, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Choudhary J.S.,Mali S.S.,Naaz N.,et al. Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model[J],2021,32.
APA	Choudhary J.S..,Mali S.S..,Naaz N..,Malik S..,Das B..,...&Bhatt B.P..(2021).Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model.Climate Risk Management,32.
MLA	Choudhary J.S.,et al."Spatio and temporal variations in population abundance and distribution of peach fruit fly, Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) during future climate change scenarios based on temperature driven phenology model".Climate Risk Management 32(2021).