气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood prevention

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DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2021.100289
	Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood prevention
	van der Pol T.; Hinkel J.; Merkens J.; MacPherson L.; Vafeidis A.T.; Arns A.; Dangendorf S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	3687
结束页码	3708
卷号	32
英文摘要	Mean and extreme sea-level uncertainties, as well as uncertainty about future flood exposure, hinder the risk-based optimisation of flood protection investments. To deal with these uncertainties, cost-benefit analysis (CBA) and methods for robust decision-making can be combined. This paper sequentially applies CBA, robust optimisation methods and info-gap analysis to find efficient and robust coastal flood protection strategies for the German Baltic Sea coast. The CBA results suggest that – under flood risk assumptions – a share of the coast of Schleswig-Holstein (9.3–10.1%; 60–65 km) and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (4.1–10.0%; 78–189 km) with relatively high flood exposure, might currently be under-protected from a social welfare perspective. Present Value estimates of regional investment costs of five regret or loss minimising strategies range from 1.7 to 4.8 billion Euro across robustness metrics at 3% discounting. The info-gap analysis suggests that some of these strategies will fail to prevent large-scale damages under high-end scenarios. We conclude that a multi-method cost-benefit approach can be used to narrow down the number of solutions that are both potentially efficient and sufficiently robust by investigating strategy performance within, across and beyond predefined scenarios. © 2021 The Authors
英文关键词	Climate change adaptation; Cost-benefit analysis; Flood protection; Info-gap; Regret; Robust decision-making
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183125
作者单位	Adaptation and Social Learning, Global Climate Forum, Berlin, Germany; Division of Resource Economics at Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany; Coastal Risks and Sea-Level Rise Research Group, Kiel University, Kiel, Germany; Department of Hydraulic and Coastal Engineering, Siegen University, Siegen, Germany; Faculty of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of Rostock, Rostock, Germany; Old Dominion University, Department for Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Norfolk, US-VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	van der Pol T.,Hinkel J.,Merkens J.,et al. Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood prevention[J],2021,32.
APA	van der Pol T..,Hinkel J..,Merkens J..,MacPherson L..,Vafeidis A.T..,...&Dangendorf S..(2021).Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood prevention.Climate Risk Management,32.
MLA	van der Pol T.,et al."Regional economic analysis of flood defence heights at the German Baltic Sea coast: A multi-method cost-benefit approach for flood prevention".Climate Risk Management 32(2021).