气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2021.100307
	Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat
	Ibbetson A.; Milojevic A.; Mavrogianni A.; Oikonomou E.; Jain N.; Tsoulou I.; Petrou G.; Gupta R.; Davies M.; Wilkinson P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	2212-0963
起始页码	3625
结束页码	3641
卷号	32
英文摘要	We explore methodological issues core to the cost-benefit evaluation of building adaptations designed to protect against heat risks to residents of care homes in England in the context of the uncertainties relating to the loss of life expectancy in heat death. We used building physics modelling to quantify the impact of external window shading on indoor temperatures. We calculated associated heat mortality and loss of life expectancy under three sets of assumptions of life-shortening based on: (Method 1) an England & Wales (E&W) life-table, (Method 2) E&W life-table scaled to match observed average survival of care home residents and (Method 3) assuming that those dying of heat have a life expectancy of six months. External window shading was estimated to reduce mean indoor temperatures by 0.9 °C in a ‘warm’ summer and 0.6 °C in an ‘average’ summer. In a care home of 50 residents, the heat deaths and years of life lost (YLL) averted by such shading were estimated by the three life-expectancy assumptions (Methods 1, 2, 3) to be: 0.07, 0.47 and 0.28 heat deaths and 0.29, 0.76 and 0.14 YLL for the warm year and 0.05, 0.31 and 0.19 heat deaths and 0.20, 0.51 and 0.10 YLL for the average year. Over a 20-year time horizon and assuming an annual discount rate of 3.5%, the monetized benefit of reduced YLL would be around £90,000, £230,000 and £44,000 with the three life-expectancy assumptions. Although this range represents appreciable uncertainty, it appears that modest cost adaptations to heat risk may be justified in conventional cost-benefit terms even under conservative assumptions about life expectancy. © 2021 The Author(s)
英文关键词	Adaptation; Care homes; Climate change; Epidemiology; Heat; Mortality displacement
来源期刊	Climate Risk Management
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/183114
作者单位	London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom; Oxford Brookes University, United Kingdom; University College London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ibbetson A.,Milojevic A.,Mavrogianni A.,et al. Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat[J],2021,32.
APA	Ibbetson A..,Milojevic A..,Mavrogianni A..,Oikonomou E..,Jain N..,...&Wilkinson P..(2021).Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat.Climate Risk Management,32.
MLA	Ibbetson A.,et al."Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat".Climate Risk Management 32(2021).