气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2017524118
	Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages
	Davenport F.V.; Burke M.; Diffenbaugh N.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:4
英文摘要	Precipitation extremes have increased across many regions of the United States, with further increases anticipated in response to additional global warming. Quantifying the impact of these precipitation changes on flood damages is necessary to estimate the costs of climate change. However, there is little empirical evidence linking changes in precipitation to the historically observed increase in flood losses. We use >6,600 reports of state-level flood damage to quantify the historical relationship between precipitation and flood damages in the United States. Our results show a significant, positive effect of both monthly and 5-d state-level precipitation on state-level flood damages. In addition, we find that historical precipitation changes have contributed approximately one-third of cumulative flood damages over 1988 to 2017 (primary estimate 36%; 95% CI 20 to 46%), with the cumulative impact of precipitation change totaling $73 billion (95% CI 39 to $91 billion). Further, climate models show that anthropogenic climate forcing has increased the probability of exceeding precipitation thresholds at the extremely wet quantiles that are responsible for most flood damages. Climate models project continued intensification of wet conditions over the next three decades, although a trajectory consistent with UN Paris Agreement goals significantly curbs that intensification. Taken together, our results quantify the contribution of precipitation trends to recent increases in flood damages, advance estimates of the costs associated with historical greenhouse gas emissions, and provide further evidence that lower levels of future warming are very likely to reduce financial losses relative to the current global warming trajectory. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Climate change; Flooding; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	article; carbon footprint; climate change; flooding; France; greenhouse effect; precipitation; probability; United States
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180923
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Environment and Energy Economics, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Davenport F.V.,Burke M.,Diffenbaugh N.S.. Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages[J],2021,118(4).
APA	Davenport F.V.,Burke M.,&Diffenbaugh N.S..(2021).Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(4).
MLA	Davenport F.V.,et al."Contribution of historical precipitation change to US flood damages".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.4(2021).