气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2015482118
	Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission
	Azimi P.; Keshavarz Z.; Cedeno Laurent J.G.; Stephens B.; Allen J.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:8
英文摘要	Several lines of existing evidence support the possibility of airborne transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). However, quantitative information on the relative importance of transmission pathways of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remains limited. To evaluate the relative importance of multiple transmission routes for SARS-CoV-2, we developed a modeling framework and leveraged detailed information available from the Diamond Princess cruise ship outbreak that occurred in early 2020. We modeled 21,600 scenarios to generate a matrix of solutions across a full range of assumptions for eight unknown or uncertain epidemic and mechanistic transmission factors. A total of 132 model iterations met acceptability criteria (R2 > 0.95 for modeled vs. reported cumulative daily cases and R2 > 0 for daily cases). Analyzing only these successful model iterations quantifies the likely contributions of each defined mode of transmission. Mean estimates of the contributions of short-range, long-range, and fomite transmission modes to infected cases across the entire simulation period were 35%, 35%, and 30%, respectively. Mean estimates of the contributions of larger respiratory droplets and smaller respiratory aerosols were 41% and 59%, respectively. Our results demonstrate that aerosol inhalation was likely the dominant contributor to COVID-19 transmission among the passengers, even considering a conservative assumption of high ventilation rates and no air recirculation conditions for the cruise ship. Moreover, close-range and long-range transmission likely contributed similarly to disease progression aboard the ship, with fomite transmission playing a smaller role. The passenger quarantine also affected the importance of each mode, demonstrating the impacts of the interventions. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Aerosol transmission; Built environment; COVID-19; Diamond Princess Cruise Ship; Transmission risk model
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; diagnosis; epidemic; human; isolation and purification; prevention and control; procedures; quarantine; ship; theoretical model; virology; Aerosols; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Quarantine; SARS-CoV-2; Ships
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180560
作者单位	Environmental Health Department, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA 02115, United States; Department of Civil, Architectural, and Environmental Engineering, Illinois Institute of Technology, Chicago, IL 60616, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Azimi P.,Keshavarz Z.,Cedeno Laurent J.G.,et al. Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission[J],2021,118(8).
APA	Azimi P.,Keshavarz Z.,Cedeno Laurent J.G.,Stephens B.,&Allen J.G..(2021).Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(8).
MLA	Azimi P.,et al."Mechanistic transmission modeling of COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess cruise ship demonstrates the importance of aerosol transmission".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.8(2021).