气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2019536118
	Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity
	Vaupel J.W.; Villavicencio F.; Bergeron-Boucher M.-P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:9
英文摘要	This article reviews some key strands of demographic research on past trends in human longevity and explores possible future trends in life expectancy at birth. Demographic data on age-specific mortality are used to estimate life expectancy, and validated data on exceptional life spans are used to study the maximum length of life. In the countries doing best each year, life expectancy started to increase around 1840 at a pace of almost 2.5 y per decade. This trend has continued until the present. Contrary to classical evolutionary theories of senescence and contrary to the predictions of many experts, the frontier of survival is advancing to higher ages. Furthermore, individual life spans are becoming more equal, reducing inequalities, with octogenarians and nonagenarians accounting for most deaths in countries with the highest life expectancy. If the current pace of progress in life expectancy continues, most children born this millennium will celebrate their 100th birthday. Considerable uncertainty, however, clouds forecasts: Life expectancy and maximum life span might increase very little if at all, or longevity might rise much faster than in the past. Substantial progress has been made over the past three decades in deepening understanding of how long humans have lived and how long they might live. The social, economic, health, cultural, and political consequences of further increases in longevity are so significant that the development of more powerful methods of forecasting is a priority. © This open access article is distributed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercialNoDerivatives License 4.0 (CC BY-NC-ND).
英文关键词	Forecasts; Life expectancy; Life span equality; Maximum life span; Mortality
语种	英语
scopus关键词	child; controlled study; demography; forecasting; human; life expectancy; lifespan; longevity; mortality; prediction; review; senescence; uncertainty; very elderly; article
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180511
作者单位	Danish Centre for Demographic Research, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, 5230, Denmark; Interdisciplinary Center on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense, 5230, Denmark; Department of International Health, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vaupel J.W.,Villavicencio F.,Bergeron-Boucher M.-P.. Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity[J],2021,118(9).
APA	Vaupel J.W.,Villavicencio F.,&Bergeron-Boucher M.-P..(2021).Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(9).
MLA	Vaupel J.W.,et al."Demographic perspectives on the rise of longevity".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.9(2021).