气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2019716118
	Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity
	Subramanian R.; He Q.; Pascual M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:9
英文摘要	The contributions of asymptomatic infections to herd immunity and community transmission are key to the resurgence and control of COVID-19, but are difficult to estimate using current models that ignore changes in testing capacity. Using a model that incorporates daily testing information fit to the case and serology data from New York City, we show that the proportion of symptomatic cases is low, ranging from 13 to 18%, and that the reproductive number may be larger than often assumed. Asymptomatic infections contribute substantially to herd immunity, and to community transmission together with presymptomatic ones. If asymptomatic infections transmit at similar rates as symptomatic ones, the overall reproductive number across all classes is larger than often assumed, with estimates ranging from 3.2 to 4.4. If they transmit poorly, then symptomatic cases have a larger reproductive number ranging from 3.9 to 8.1. Even in this regime, presymptomatic and asymptomatic cases together comprise at least 50% of the force of infection at the outbreak peak. We find no regimes in which all infection subpopulations have reproductive numbers lower than three. These findings elucidate the uncertainty that current case and serology data cannot resolve, despite consideration of different model structures. They also emphasize how temporal data on testing can reduce and better define this uncertainty, as we move forward through longer surveillance and second epidemic waves. Complementary information is required to determine the transmissibility of asymptomatic cases, which we discuss. Regardless, current assumptions about the basic reproductive number of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) should be reconsidered. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Asymptomatic transmission; COVID-19; Epidemiological model; Epidemiological parameter estimates; Testing submodel
语种	英语
scopus关键词	asymptomatic infection; basic reproduction number; epidemic; human; New York; pathophysiology; Asymptomatic Infections; Basic Reproduction Number; COVID-19; Disease Outbreaks; Humans; New York City
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180510
作者单位	Department of Ecology and Evolution, Biological Sciences Division, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Subramanian R.,He Q.,Pascual M.. Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity[J],2021,118(9).
APA	Subramanian R.,He Q.,&Pascual M..(2021).Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(9).
MLA	Subramanian R.,et al."Quantifying asymptomatic infection and transmission of COVID-19 in New York City using observed cases, serology, and testing capacity".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.9(2021).