气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2008128118
	Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy
	Deshmukh R.; Phadke A.; Callaway D.S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:13
英文摘要	India has set aggressive targets to install more than 400 GW of wind and solar electricity generation by 2030, with more than two-thirds of that capacity coming from solar. This paper examines the electricity and carbon mitigation costs to reliably operate India’s grid in 2030 for a variety of wind and solar targets (200 GW to 600 GW) and the most promising options for reducing these costs. We find that systems where solar photovoltaic comprises only 25 to 50% of the total renewable target have the lowest carbon mitigation costs in most scenarios. This result invites a reexamination of India’s proposed solar-majority targets. We also find that, compared to other regions and contrary to prevailing assumptions, meeting high renewable targets will avoid building very few new fossil fuel (coal and natural gas) power plants because of India’s specific weather patterns and need to meet peak electricity demand. However, building 600 GW of renewable capacity, with the majority being wind plants, reduces how often fossil fuel power plants run, and this amount of capacity can hold India’s 2030 emissions below 2018 levels for less than the social cost of carbon. With likely wind and solar cost declines and increases in coal energy costs, balanced or wind-majority high renewable energy systems (600 GW or ≈ 45% share by energy) could result in electricity costs similar to a fossil fuel-dominated system. As an alternative strategy for meeting peak electricity demand, battery storage can avert the need for new fossil fuel capacity but is cost effective only at low capital costs (≈ USD 150 per kWh). © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Emissions; India; Renewable energy; Solar; Wind
语种	英语
scopus关键词	coal; natural gas; Article; carbon mitigation cost; coal power; controlled study; cost; cost control; electric power plant; electricity; energy cost; India; net system cost; priority journal; renewable energy; solar energy; urbanization; weather; wind power
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180100
作者单位	Environmental Studies Department, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, United States; Energy Technologies Area, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; Energy and Resources Group, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Deshmukh R.,Phadke A.,Callaway D.S.. Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy[J],2021,118(13).
APA	Deshmukh R.,Phadke A.,&Callaway D.S..(2021).Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(13).
MLA	Deshmukh R.,et al."Least-cost targets and avoided fossil fuel capacity in India’s pursuit of renewable energy".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.13(2021).