气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity

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DOI	10.1073/PNAS.2015972118
	Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity
	Tkachenko A.V.; Maslov S.; Elbanna A.; Wong G.N.; Weiner Z.J.; Goldenfeld N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:17
英文摘要	Epidemics generally spread through a succession of waves that reflect factors on multiple timescales. On short timescales, superspreading events lead to burstiness and overdispersion, whereas long-term persistent heterogeneity in susceptibility is expected to lead to a reduction in both the infection peak and the herd immunity threshold (HIT). Here, we develop a general approach to encompass both timescales, including time variations in individual social activity, and demonstrate how to incorporate them phenomenologically into a wide class of epidemiological models through reparameterization. We derive a nonlinear dependence of the effective reproduction number Re on the susceptible population fraction S. We show that a state of transient collective immunity (TCI) emerges well below the HIT during early, highpaced stages of the epidemic. However, this is a fragile state that wanes over time due to changing levels of social activity, and so the infection peak is not an indication of long-lasting herd immunity: Subsequent waves may emerge due to behavioral changes in the population, driven by, for example, seasonal factors. Transient and long-term levels of heterogeneity are estimated using empirical data from the COVID-19 epidemic and from real-life faceto-face contact networks. These results suggest that the hardest hit areas, such as New York City, have achieved TCI following the first wave of the epidemic, but likely remain below the long-term HIT. Thus, in contrast to some previous claims, these regions can still experience subsequent waves. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Covid-19; Epidemic theory; Heterogeneity; Overdispersion
语种	英语
scopus关键词	biological model; epidemic; epidemiology; herd immunity; human; immunology; United States; COVID-19; Epidemics; Humans; Immunity, Herd; Models, Immunological; SARS-CoV-2; United States
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180031
作者单位	Brookhaven National Laboratory, Center for Functional Nanomaterials, Upton, NY 11973, United States; Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Department of Bioengineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Beckman Institute for Advanced Science and Technology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL 61801, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tkachenko A.V.,Maslov S.,Elbanna A.,et al. Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity[J],2021,118(17).
APA	Tkachenko A.V.,Maslov S.,Elbanna A.,Wong G.N.,Weiner Z.J.,&Goldenfeld N..(2021).Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(17).
MLA	Tkachenko A.V.,et al."Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.17(2021).