气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamic prioritization of covid-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers

CCPortal

DOI	10.1073/PNAS.2025786118
	Dynamic prioritization of covid-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers
	Buckner J.H.; Chowell G.; Springborn M.R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:16
英文摘要	COVID-19 vaccines have been authorized in multiple countries, and more are under rapid development. Careful design of a vaccine prioritization strategy across sociodemographic groups is a crucial public policy challenge given that 1) vaccine supply will be constrained for the first several months of the vaccination campaign, 2) there are stark differences in transmission and severity of impacts from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) across groups, and 3) SARS-CoV-2 differs markedly from previous pandemic viruses. We assess the optimal allocation of a limited vaccine supply in the United States across groups differentiated by age and essential worker status, which constrains opportunities for social distancing. We model transmission dynamics using a compartmental model parameterized to capture current understanding of the epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19, including key sources of group heterogeneity (susceptibility, severity, and contact rates). We investigate three alternative policy objectives (minimizing infections, years of life lost, or deaths) and model a dynamic strategy that evolves with the population epidemiological status. We find that this temporal flexibility contributes substantially to public health goals. Older essential workers are typically targeted first. However, depending on the objective, younger essential workers are prioritized to control spread or seniors to directly control mortality. When the objective is minimizing deaths, relative to an untargeted approach, prioritization averts deaths on a range between 20,000 (when nonpharmaceutical interventions are strong) and 300,000 (when these interventions are weak). We illustrate how optimal prioritization is sensitive to several factors, most notably, vaccine effectiveness and supply, rate of transmission, and the magnitude of initial infections. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	COVID-19; Essential workers; Vaccine prioritization
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adult; aged; biological model; epidemiology; health care personnel; human; immunology; middle aged; vaccination; Adult; Aged; COVID-19; COVID-19 Vaccines; Health Personnel; Humans; Middle Aged; Models, Immunological; Physical Distancing; Vaccination
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180029
作者单位	Graduate Group in Ecology, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States; Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, GA 30303, United States; Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis, CA 95616, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Buckner J.H.,Chowell G.,Springborn M.R.. Dynamic prioritization of covid-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers[J],2021,118(16).
APA	Buckner J.H.,Chowell G.,&Springborn M.R..(2021).Dynamic prioritization of covid-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(16).
MLA	Buckner J.H.,et al."Dynamic prioritization of covid-19 vaccines when social distancing is limited for essential workers".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.16(2021).