气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control

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DOI	10.1073/pnas.2016623118
	Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control
	Sneppen K.; Nielsen B.F.; Taylor R.J.; Simonsen L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:14
英文摘要	Increasing evidence indicates that superspreading plays a dominant role in COVID-19 transmission. Recent estimates suggest that the dispersion parameter k for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is on the order of 0.1, which corresponds to about 10% of cases being the source of 80% of infections. To investigate how overdispersion might affect the outcome of various mitigation strategies, we developed an agent-based model with a social network that allows transmission through contact in three sectors: "close" (a small, unchanging group of mutual contacts as might be found in a household), "regular" (a larger, unchanging group as might be found in a workplace or school), and "random" (drawn from the entire model population and not repeated regularly). We assigned individual infectivity from a gamma distribution with dispersion parameter k. We found that when k was low (i.e., greater heterogeneity, more superspreading events), reducing random sector contacts had a far greater impact on the epidemic trajectory than did reducing regular contacts; when k was high (i.e., less heterogeneity, no superspreading events), that difference disappeared. These results suggest that overdispersion of COVID-19 transmission gives the virus an Achilles' heel: Reducing contacts between people who do not regularly meet would substantially reduce the pandemic, while reducing repeated contacts in defined social groups would be less effective. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Mitigation strategies; Overdispersion; Pandemic; Social networks; Superspreading
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Article; clinical effectiveness; contact time; coronavirus disease 2019; epidemic; household; incidence; infection control; infection rate; pandemic; priority journal; risk evaluation and mitigation strategy; school; sensitivity analysis; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; social behavior; social network; superspreading event; virus infectivity; virus transmission; workplace; age; computer simulation; contact examination; epidemiology; human; pandemic; pathogenicity; physiology; prevention and control; quarantine; statistical model; virology; Age Factors; Computer Simulation; Contact Tracing; COVID-19; Humans; Models, Statistical; Pandemics; Physical Distancing; Quarantine; SARS-CoV-2; Social Networking
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/180028
作者单位	Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, København Ø, 2100, Denmark; Department of Science and Environment, Roskilde University, Roskilde, 4000, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sneppen K.,Nielsen B.F.,Taylor R.J.,et al. Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control[J],2021,118(14).
APA	Sneppen K.,Nielsen B.F.,Taylor R.J.,&Simonsen L..(2021).Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(14).
MLA	Sneppen K.,et al."Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.14(2021).