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DOI	10.1073/PNAS.2025324118
	Short-term forecasts of expected deaths
	Rizzi S.; Vaupel J.W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	00278424
卷号	118 期号:15
英文摘要	We introduce a method for making short-term mortality forecasts of a few months, illustrating it by estimating how many deaths might have happened if some major shock had not occurred. We apply the method to assess excess mortality from March to June 2020 in Denmark and Sweden as a result of the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic; associated policy interventions; and behavioral, healthcare, social, and economic changes. We chose to compare Denmark and Sweden because reliable data were available and because the two countries are similar but chose different responses to COVID-19: Denmark imposed a rather severe lockdown; Sweden did not. We make forecasts by age and sex to predict expected deaths if COVID-19 had not struck. Subtracting these forecasts from observed deaths gives the excess death count. Excess deaths were lower in Denmark than Sweden during the first wave of the pandemic. The later/earlier ratio we propose for shortcasting is easy to understand, requires less data than more elaborate approaches, and may be useful in many countries in making both predictions about the future and the past to study the impact on mortality of coronavirus and other epidemics. In the application to Denmark and Sweden, prediction intervals are narrower and bias is less than when forecasts are based on averages of the last 5 y, as is often done. More generally, later/earlier ratios may prove useful in short-term forecasting of illnesses and births as well as economic and other activity that varies seasonally or periodically. © 2021 National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Coronavirus pandemic; Denmark and Sweden; Excess deaths; Mortality forecasting; Short-term forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	rain; air quality; Article; behavior change; coronavirus disease 2019; demography; Denmark; disease severity; economic aspect; economist; educational status; elderly care; epidemic; flooding; forecasting; groups by age; health care; health care policy; health care system; housing; human; influenza; lockdown; machine learning; medical care; mortality rate; nursing home; pandemic; population structure; prediction; priority journal; rural area; seasonal influenza; seasonal variation; sex difference; social behavior; social interaction; social network; Sweden; urban area; adolescent; adult; aged; child; epidemiology; female; forecasting; infant; isolation and purification; male; middle aged; mortality; newborn; preschool child; very elderly; young adult; Adolescent; Adult; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Child; Child, Preschool; COVID-19; Denmark; Female; Forecasting; Humans; Infant; Infant, Newborn; Male; Middle Aged; Pandemics; SARS-CoV-2; Sweden; Young Adult
来源期刊	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/179944
作者单位	Interdisciplinary Centre on Population Dynamics, University of Southern Denmark, Odense M, 5230, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rizzi S.,Vaupel J.W.. Short-term forecasts of expected deaths[J],2021,118(15).
APA	Rizzi S.,&Vaupel J.W..(2021).Short-term forecasts of expected deaths.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,118(15).
MLA	Rizzi S.,et al."Short-term forecasts of expected deaths".Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 118.15(2021).