气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01011-y
	Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon
	Chen Y.; Romps D.M.; Seeley J.T.; Veraverbeke S.; Riley W.J.; Mekonnen Z.A.; Randerson J.T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
英文摘要	Lightning is an indicator and a driver of climate change. Here, using satellite observations of lightning flash rate and ERA5 reanalysis, we find that the spatial pattern of summer lightning over northern circumpolar regions exhibits a strong positive relationship with the product of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and precipitation. Applying this relationship to Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections for a high-emissions scenario (RCP8.5) shows an increase in CAPE (86 ± 22%) and precipitation (17 ± 2%) in areas underlain by permafrost, causing summer lightning to increase by 112 ± 38% by the end of the century (2081–2100). Future flash rates at the northern treeline are comparable to current levels 480 km to the south in boreal forests. We hypothesize that lightning increases may induce a fire–vegetation feedback whereby more burning in Arctic tundra expedites the northward migration of boreal trees, with the potential to accelerate the positive feedback associated with permafrost soil carbon release. ? 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178806
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, CA, United States; Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; Harvard University Center for the Environment, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Y.,Romps D.M.,Seeley J.T.,et al. Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon[J],2021.
APA	Chen Y..,Romps D.M..,Seeley J.T..,Veraverbeke S..,Riley W.J..,...&Randerson J.T..(2021).Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Chen Y.,et al."Future increases in Arctic lightning and fire risk for permafrost carbon".Nature Climate Change (2021).