气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Reply to ''comment on 'the impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity'''

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0669.1
	Reply to ''comment on 'the impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity'''
	Lewis N.; Curry J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	397
结束页码	404
卷号	33 期号:1
英文摘要	Cowtan and Jacobs assert that the method used by Lewis and Curry in 2018 (LC18) to estimate the climate system's transient climate response (TCR) from changes between two time windows is less robust-in particular against sea surface temperature bias correction uncertainty-than a method that uses the entire historical record. We demonstrate that TCR estimated using all data from the temperature record is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows, as is the median TCR estimate using all pairs of individual years. We also show that the median TCR estimate from all pairs of decade-plus-length windows is closely in line with that estimated using the LC18 windows and that incorporating window selection uncertainty would make little difference to total uncertainty in TCR estimation. We find that, when differences in the evolution of forcing are accounted for, the relationship over time between warming in CMIP5 models and observations is consistent with the relationship between CMIP5 TCR and LC18's TCR estimate but fluctuates as a result of multidecadal internal variability and volcanism. We also show that various other matters raised by Cowtan and Jacobs have negligible implications for TCR estimation in LC18. © 2019 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Oceanography; Surface waters; Climate response; Climate sensitivity; Historical records; Internal variability; Ocean heat uptake; Sea surface temperature (SST); Total uncertainties; Window selection; Uncertainty analysis; air-sea interaction; annual variation; climate forcing; climate modeling; error correction; estimation method; sea surface temperature; uncertainty analysis; volcanism
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178753
作者单位	Bath, United Kingdom; Climate Forecast Applications Network, Reno, NV, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lewis N.,Curry J.. Reply to ''comment on 'the impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity'''[J],2020,33(1).
APA	Lewis N.,&Curry J..(2020).Reply to ''comment on 'the impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity'''.Journal of Climate,33(1).
MLA	Lewis N.,et al."Reply to ''comment on 'the impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity'''".Journal of Climate 33.1(2020).