气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dynamical seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity: Roles of sea surface temperature errors and atmosphere-land initialization

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0215.1
	Dynamical seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity: Roles of sea surface temperature errors and atmosphere-land initialization
	Zhang G.; Murakami H.; Yang X.; Findell K.L.; Wittenberg A.T.; Jia L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1743
结束页码	1766
卷号	34 期号:5
英文摘要	Climate models often show errors in simulating and predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activity, but the sources of these errors are not well understood. This study proposes an evaluation framework and analyzes three sets of experiments conducted using a seasonal prediction model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). These experiments apply the nudging technique to the model integration and/or initialization to estimate possible improvements from nearly perfect model conditions. The results suggest that reducing sea surface temperature (SST) errors remains important for better predicting TC activity at long forecast leads-even in a flux-adjusted model with reduced climatological biases. Other error sources also contribute to biases in simulated TC activity, with notable manifestations on regional scales. A novel finding is that the coupling and initialization of the land and atmosphere components can affect seasonal TC prediction skill. Simulated year-to-year variations in June land conditions over North America show a significant lead correlation with the North Atlantic large-scale environment and TC activity. Improved land-atmosphere initialization appears to improve the Atlantic TC predictions initialized in some summer months. For short-lead predictions initialized in June, the potential skill improvements attributable to land-atmosphere initialization might be comparable to those achievable with perfect SST predictions. Overall, this study delineates the SST and non-oceanic error sources in predicting TC activity and highlights avenues for improving predictions. The nudging-based evaluation framework can be applied to other models and help improve predictions of other weather extremes. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Atmosphere-land interaction; Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate prediction; Coupled models; Model evaluation/performance; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Climatology; Errors; Forecasting; Hurricanes; Land surface temperature; Predictive analytics; Storms; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Tropics; Atmosphere components; Evaluation framework; Geophysical fluid dynamics laboratories; Model integration; Sea surface temperature (SST); Seasonal prediction; Tropical cyclone activity; Weather extremes; Oceanography; air-sea interaction; atmosphere-biosphere interaction; climate modeling; climate prediction; sea surface temperature; seasonal variation; tropical cyclone; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); North America
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178703
作者单位	Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang G.,Murakami H.,Yang X.,et al. Dynamical seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity: Roles of sea surface temperature errors and atmosphere-land initialization[J],2021,34(5).
APA	Zhang G.,Murakami H.,Yang X.,Findell K.L.,Wittenberg A.T.,&Jia L..(2021).Dynamical seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity: Roles of sea surface temperature errors and atmosphere-land initialization.Journal of Climate,34(5).
MLA	Zhang G.,et al."Dynamical seasonal predictions of tropical cyclone activity: Roles of sea surface temperature errors and atmosphere-land initialization".Journal of Climate 34.5(2021).