气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in north atlantic atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate favor winter flooding and summer drought over europe

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0311.1
	Changes in north atlantic atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate favor winter flooding and summer drought over europe
	ROUSI E.; SELTEN F.; RAHMSTORF S.; COUMOU D.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2277
结束页码	2295
卷号	34 期号:6
英文摘要	Changes in atmospheric circulation under increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are important because of their implications for weather extremes and associated societal risks. However, uncertainties in models and future projections are still large and drivers behind circulation changes are not well understood. Particularly for Europe, a potential weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is considered important as it affects SST patterns and ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes and, subsequently, European climate. Here we detect and characterize changes in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic under increasingCO2 concentrations in simulations of a very highresolution, fully coupled climate model (CM2.6) with a realistic representation of the AMOC. We use an objective clustering technique (self-organizing maps) and validate the model's clusters against reanalysis data.We compare the frequency of those patterns in a CO2 doubling experiment, characterized by an AMOC decline, with those in a preindustrial run, and find statistically significant changes. The most robust findings are 1) a ;30% increase in zonal flow regimes in February, relevant for flood risk in northwestern Europe, and 2) a ;60% increase in anticyclonic (high pressure) circulation directly west of the United Kingdom in August, relevant for western and central European drought. A robust decrease in the frequency of Scandinavian blocking is also seen across most months and seasons. Despite the uncertainties regarding atmospheric circulation response to climate change, our findings contribute to the increasing evidence for the emergence of robust high-impact changes over Europe. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; Climate classification/regimes; Europe; General circulation models; North Atlantic Ocean; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Conformal mapping; Drought; Floods; Greenhouse gases; Oceanography; Self organizing maps; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric circulation patterns; Circulation changes; Clustering techniques; Future projections; Gas concentration; Weather extremes; Climate change; atmospheric circulation; climate change; climate classification; climate effect; concentration (composition); drought; flooding; general circulation model; global warming; greenhouse gas; regional climate; sea surface temperature; summer; teleconnection; winter; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Europe
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178685
作者单位	Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit (VU) Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	ROUSI E.,SELTEN F.,RAHMSTORF S.,et al. Changes in north atlantic atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate favor winter flooding and summer drought over europe[J],2021,34(6).
APA	ROUSI E.,SELTEN F.,RAHMSTORF S.,&COUMOU D..(2021).Changes in north atlantic atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate favor winter flooding and summer drought over europe.Journal of Climate,34(6).
MLA	ROUSI E.,et al."Changes in north atlantic atmospheric circulation in a warmer climate favor winter flooding and summer drought over europe".Journal of Climate 34.6(2021).