气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency over the Western North Pacific based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0417.1
	Future changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency over the Western North Pacific based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI models
	Hong C.-C.; Tsou C.-H.; Hsu P.-C.; Chen K.-C.; Liang H.-C.; Hsu H.-H.; Tu C.-Y.; Kitoh A.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2235
结束页码	2251
卷号	34 期号:6
英文摘要	The future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity and frequency over the western North Pacific (WNP) under global warming remain uncertain. In this study, we investigated such changes using 20-km resolution HiRAM and Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) models, which can realistically simulate the TC activity in the present climate. We found that the mean intensity of TCs in the future (2075-99) would increase by approximately 15%, along with an eastward shift of TC genesis location in response to the El Niño-like warming. However, the lifetime of future TCs would be shortened because the TCs tend to have more poleward genesis locations and move faster due to a stronger steering flow related to the strengthened WNP subtropical high in a warmer climate. In other words, the enhancement of TC intensity in the future is not attributable to the duration of TC lifetime. To understand the processes responsible for the change in TC intensity in a warmer climate, we applied the budget equation of synoptic-scale eddy kinetic energy along the TC tracks in model simulations. The diagnostic results suggested that both the upper-level baroclinic energy conversion (CE) and lower-level barotropic energy conversion (CK) contribute to the intensified TCs under global warming. The increased CE results from the enhancement of TC-related perturbations of temperature and vertical velocity over the subtropical WNP, whereas the increased CK mainly comes from synoptic-scale eddies interacting with enhanced zonal-wind convergence associated with seasonal-mean and intraseasonal flows over Southeast China and the northwestern sector of WNP. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Anthropogenic effects/forcing; Climate models; Energy budget/ balance; Intraseasonal variability; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Climate models; Energy conversion; Global warming; Kinetic energy; Kinetics; Storms; Tropics; Budget equation; Meteorological research institutes; Model simulation; Synoptic-scale eddies; Tropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone intensity; Vertical velocity; Western North Pacific; Hurricanes; anthropogenic effect; climate change; climate modeling; energy balance; energy budget; global warming; storm track; tropical cyclone; zonal wind; China; Pacific Ocean; Pacific Ocean (North)
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178661
作者单位	Department of Earth and Life, University of Taipei, Taipei, Taiwan; Department of Earth Sciences, National Taiwan Normal University, Taipei, Taiwan; Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, China; Research Center for Environmental Changes, Academia Sinica, Taipei, Taiwan; Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Japan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hong C.-C.,Tsou C.-H.,Hsu P.-C.,et al. Future changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency over the Western North Pacific based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI models[J],2021,34(6).
APA	Hong C.-C..,Tsou C.-H..,Hsu P.-C..,Chen K.-C..,Liang H.-C..,...&Kitoh A..(2021).Future changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency over the Western North Pacific based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI models.Journal of Climate,34(6).
MLA	Hong C.-C.,et al."Future changes in tropical cyclone intensity and frequency over the Western North Pacific based on 20-km HiRAM and MRI models".Journal of Climate 34.6(2021).