气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in future precipitation mean and variability across scales

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0001.1
	Changes in future precipitation mean and variability across scales
	Schwarzwald K.; Poppick A.; Rugenstein M.; Bloch-Johnson J.; Wang J.; McInerney D.; Moyer E.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2741
结束页码	2758
卷号	34 期号:7
英文摘要	Changes in precipitation variability can have large societal consequences, whether at the short time scales of flash floods or the longer time scales of multiyear droughts. Recent studies have suggested that in future climate projections, precipitation variability rises more steeply than does its mean, leading to concerns about societal impacts. This work evaluates changes in mean precipitation over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales using a range of models from high-resolution regional simulations to millennial-scale global simulations. Results show that changes depend on the scale of aggregation and involve strong regional differences. On local scales that resolve individual rainfall events (hours and tens of kilometers), changes in precipitation distributions are complex and variances rise substantially more than means, as is required given the well-known disproportionate rise in precipitation intensity. On scales that aggregate across many events, distributional changes become simpler and variability changes smaller. At regional scale, future precipitation distributions can be largely reproduced by a simple transformation of present-day precipitation involving a multiplicative shift and a small additive term. The ''extra'' broadening is negatively correlated with changes in mean precipitation: in strongly ''wetting'' areas, distributions broaden less than expected from a simple multiplicative mean change; in ''drying'' areas, distributions narrow less. Precipitation variability changes are therefore of especial concern in the subtropics, which tend to dry under climate change. Outside the tropics, variability changes are similar on time scales from days to decades (i.e., show little frequency dependence). This behavior is highly robust across models, suggesting it may stem from some fundamental constraint. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
英文关键词	Climate variability; Decadal variability; Interannual variability; Intraseasonal variability; Precipitation; Rainfall
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Economic and social effects; Time measurement; Tropics; Frequency dependence; Fundamental constraints; Future climate projections; Precipitation distribution; Precipitation intensity; Precipitation variability; Regional differences; Spatial and temporal scale; Precipitation (meteorology); annual variation; climate variation; decadal variation; future prospect; precipitation assessment; rainfall; seasonal variation
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178658
作者单位	Center for Robust Decision-Making on Climate and Energy Policy, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States; Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Carleton College, Northfield, MN, United States; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Environmental Science Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, United States; Department of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; Department of Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schwarzwald K.,Poppick A.,Rugenstein M.,et al. Changes in future precipitation mean and variability across scales[J],2021,34(7).
APA	Schwarzwald K..,Poppick A..,Rugenstein M..,Bloch-Johnson J..,Wang J..,...&Moyer E.J..(2021).Changes in future precipitation mean and variability across scales.Journal of Climate,34(7).
MLA	Schwarzwald K.,et al."Changes in future precipitation mean and variability across scales".Journal of Climate 34.7(2021).