气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Prediction of arctic temperature and sea ice using a high-resolution coupled model

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0227.1
	Prediction of arctic temperature and sea ice using a high-resolution coupled model
	Chang L.; Luo J.-J.; Xue J.; Xu H.; Dunstone N.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2905
结束页码	2922
卷号	34 期号:8
英文摘要	Under global warming, surface air temperature has risen rapidly and sea ice has decreased markedly in the Arctic. These drastic climate changes have brought about various severe impacts on the vulnerable environment and ecosystem there. Thus, accurate prediction of Arctic climate becomes more important than before. Here we examine the seasonal to interannual predictive skills of 2-m air temperature (2-m T) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the Arctic region (708-908N) during 1980-2014 with a high-resolution global coupled model called the Met Office Decadal Prediction System, version 3 (DePreSys3). The model captures well both the climatology and interannual variability of the Arctic 2-m T and SIC. Moreover, the anomaly correlation coefficient of Arctic-averaged 2-m T and SIC shows statistically significant skills at lead times up to 16 months. This is mainly due to the contribution of strong decadal trends. In addition, it is found that the peak warming trend of Arctic 2-m T lags the maximum decrease trend of SIC by 1 month, in association with the heat flux forcing from the ocean surface to lower atmosphere. While the predictive skill is generally much lower for the detrended variations, we find a close relationship between the tropical Pacific El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Arctic detrended 2-m T anomalies. This indicates potential seasonal to interannual predictability of the Arctic natural variations. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate prediction; Ensembles; Hindcasts; Ice loss/growth; Seasonal forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric temperature; Global warming; Heat flux; Sea ice; Accurate prediction; Anomaly correlations; Decadal predictions; Global coupled model; Interannual variability; Southern oscillation; Surface air temperatures; Vulnerable environments; Forecasting; air temperature; annual variation; climate modeling; climate prediction; ensemble forecasting; hindcasting; sea ice; seasonal variation; Arctic
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178655
作者单位	Institute for Climate and Application Research, Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chang L.,Luo J.-J.,Xue J.,et al. Prediction of arctic temperature and sea ice using a high-resolution coupled model[J],2021,34(8).
APA	Chang L.,Luo J.-J.,Xue J.,Xu H.,&Dunstone N..(2021).Prediction of arctic temperature and sea ice using a high-resolution coupled model.Journal of Climate,34(8).
MLA	Chang L.,et al."Prediction of arctic temperature and sea ice using a high-resolution coupled model".Journal of Climate 34.8(2021).