气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Explaining the spatial pattern of U.S. extreme daily precipitation change

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0666.1
	Explaining the spatial pattern of U.S. extreme daily precipitation change
	Hoerling M.; Smith L.; Quan X.-W.; Eischeid J.; Barsugli J.; Diaz H.F.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2759
结束页码	2775
卷号	34 期号:7
英文摘要	Observed United States trends in the annual maximum 1-day precipitation (RX1day) over the last century consist of 15%-25% increases over the eastern United States (East) and 10% decreases over the far western United States (West). This heterogeneous trend pattern departs from comparatively uniform observed increases in precipitable water over the contiguous United States. Here we use an event attribution framework involving parallel sets of global atmospheric model experiments with and without climate change drivers to explain this spatially diverse pattern of extreme daily precipitation trends. We find that RX1day events in our model ensembles respond to observed historical climate change forcing differently across the United States with 5%-10% intensity increases over the East but no appreciable change over the West. This spatially diverse forced signal is broadly similar among three models used, and is positively correlated with the observed trend pattern. Our analysis of model and observations indicates the lack of appreciable RX1day signals over the West is likely due to dynamical effects of climate change forcing-via a wintertime atmospheric circulation anomaly that suppresses vertical motion over the West-largely cancelling thermodynamic effects of increased water vapor availability. The large magnitude of eastern U.S. RX1day increases is unlikely a symptom of a regional heightened sensitivity to climate change forcing. Instead, our ensemble simulations reveal considerable variability in RX1day trend magnitudes arising from internal atmospheric processes alone, and we argue that the remarkable observed increases over the East has most likely resulted from a superposition of strong internal variability with a moderate climate change signal. Implications for future changes in U.S. extreme daily precipitation are discussed. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
英文关键词	Climate change; Climate models; Climate records; Extreme events; Precipitation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Atmospheric circulation anomaly; Daily precipitations; Global atmospheric models; Implications for futures; Internal variability; Model and observation; Thermodynamic effect; Western United States; Climate change; climate change; climate forcing; climate modeling; diurnal variation; extreme event; precipitation (climatology); regional pattern; trend analysis; United States
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178653
作者单位	NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Colorado, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, CO, United States; University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hoerling M.,Smith L.,Quan X.-W.,et al. Explaining the spatial pattern of U.S. extreme daily precipitation change[J],2021,34(7).
APA	Hoerling M.,Smith L.,Quan X.-W.,Eischeid J.,Barsugli J.,&Diaz H.F..(2021).Explaining the spatial pattern of U.S. extreme daily precipitation change.Journal of Climate,34(7).
MLA	Hoerling M.,et al."Explaining the spatial pattern of U.S. extreme daily precipitation change".Journal of Climate 34.7(2021).