气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Contrasting interannual prediction between January and february temperature in Southern China in the NCEP climate forecast system

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0568.1
	Contrasting interannual prediction between January and february temperature in Southern China in the NCEP climate forecast system
	Qiao S.; Zou M.; Cheung H.N.; Liu J.; Zuo J.; Li Q.; Feng G.; Dong W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2791
结束页码	2812
卷号	34 期号:7
英文摘要	This study investigates the prediction of southern China surface air temperature (SAT) in January and February using hindcast and forecast dataset from the second version of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System, version 2 (NCEP CFSv2), for the period of 1983-2017. The observed January and February SAT in southern China is teleconnected with the Euro-Atlantic dipole (EAD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. The February SAT is also teleconnected with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) via the bridge with the Philippine Sea anticyclone. The CFSv2 better predicts southern China SAT in February than January, where the temporal correlation coefficients between the observed and predicted regional-mean SAT in February and January are 10.81 and 10.27 (10.32 and 10.04), respectively, for the one-month (two month) ahead prediction. The better prediction in February coincides with 1) accurate responses of the Eurasian circulation and the Philippine Sea anticyclone to the NAO and the ENSO, respectively, and 2) a strong ENSO-NAO linkage. The poorer prediction in January is related to a stronger linkage of the predicted January SAT with the NAO rather than the EAD, as well as a weak ENSO-EAD linkage. These results advance our understanding of the subseasonal prediction of the winter temperature in southern China. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright
英文关键词	Atmosphere-ocean interaction; Climate prediction; ENSO; Model evaluation/ performance; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Accurate response; Climate forecasts; Inter-annual predictions; National centers for environmental predictions; North Atlantic oscillations; Southern oscillation; Surface air temperatures; Temporal correlations; Forecasting; air temperature; air-sea interaction; annual variation; climate prediction; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; hindcasting; numerical model; surface temperature; teleconnection; China
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178648
作者单位	School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China; Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of Education, Zhuhai, China; Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory, Zhuhai, China; School of Physical Science and Technology, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou, China; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qiao S.,Zou M.,Cheung H.N.,et al. Contrasting interannual prediction between January and february temperature in Southern China in the NCEP climate forecast system[J],2021,34(7).
APA	Qiao S..,Zou M..,Cheung H.N..,Liu J..,Zuo J..,...&Dong W..(2021).Contrasting interannual prediction between January and february temperature in Southern China in the NCEP climate forecast system.Journal of Climate,34(7).
MLA	Qiao S.,et al."Contrasting interannual prediction between January and february temperature in Southern China in the NCEP climate forecast system".Journal of Climate 34.7(2021).