气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global surface temperature response to 11-Yr solar cycle forcing consistent with general circulation model results

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0312.1
	Global surface temperature response to 11-Yr solar cycle forcing consistent with general circulation model results
	Amdur T.; Stine A.R.; Huybers P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	2893
结束页码	2903
卷号	34 期号:8
英文摘要	The 11-yr solar cycle is associated with a roughly 1 W m22 trough-to-peak variation in total solar irradiance and is expected to produce a global temperature response. The sensitivity of this response is, however, contentious. Empirical best estimates of global surface temperature sensitivity to solar forcing range from 0.08 to 0.18 K (W m22)21. In comparison, best estimates from general circulation models forced by solar variability range between 0.03 and 0.07 K (W m22)21, prompting speculation that physical mechanisms not included in general circulation models may amplify responses to solar variability. Using a lagged multiple linear regression method, we find a sensitivity of global-average surface temperature ranging between 0.02 and 0.09 K (W m22)21, depending on which predictor and temperature datasets are used. On the basis of likelihood maximization, we give a best estimate of the sensitivity to solar variability of 0.05 K (W m22)21 (0.03-0.09 K; 95% confidence interval). Furthermore, through updating a widely used compositing approach to incorporate recent observations, we revise prior global temperature sensitivity best estimates of 0.12-0.18 K (W m22)21 downward to 0.07-0.10 K (W m22)21. The finding of a most likely global temperature response of 0.05 K (W m22)21 supports a relatively modest role for solar cycle variability in driving global surface temperature variations over the twentieth century and removes the need to invoke processes that amplify the response relative to that exhibited in general circulation models. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate sensitivity; Climate variability; Pattern detection; Solar cycle; Surface temperature; Time series
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Linear regression; Solar energy; Surface properties; Confidence interval; General circulation model; Global surface temperature; Global temperatures; Multiple linear regression method; Physical mechanism; Surface temperatures; Total solar irradiance; Atmospheric temperature; atmospheric general circulation model; climate variation; irradiance; radiative forcing; regression analysis; sensitivity analysis; solar cycle; solar radiation; surface temperature; time series; twentieth century
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178646
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States; Department of Earth and Climate Sciences, San Francisco State University, San Francisco, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Amdur T.,Stine A.R.,Huybers P.. Global surface temperature response to 11-Yr solar cycle forcing consistent with general circulation model results[J],2021,34(8).
APA	Amdur T.,Stine A.R.,&Huybers P..(2021).Global surface temperature response to 11-Yr solar cycle forcing consistent with general circulation model results.Journal of Climate,34(8).
MLA	Amdur T.,et al."Global surface temperature response to 11-Yr solar cycle forcing consistent with general circulation model results".Journal of Climate 34.8(2021).