气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): An initialized attribution method for extreme events on subseasonal to seasonal time scales

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1021.1
	An initialized attribution method for extreme events on subseasonal to seasonal time scales
	Wang G.; Hope P.; Lim E.-P.; Hendon H.H.; Arblaster J.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1453
结束页码	1465
卷号	34 期号:4
英文摘要	When record-breaking climate and weather extremes occur, decision-makers and planners want to know whether they are random natural events with historical levels of reoccurrence or are reflective of an altered frequency or intensity as a result of climate change. This paper describes a method to attribute extreme weather and climate events to observed increases in atmospheric CO2 using an initialized subseasonal to seasonal coupled global climate prediction system. Application of this method provides quantitative estimates of the contribution arising from increases in the level of atmospheric CO2 to individual weather and climate extreme events. Using a coupled subseasonal to seasonal forecast system differs from other methods because it has the merit of being initialized with the observed conditions and subsequently reproducing the observed events and their mechanisms. This can aid understanding when the reforecasts with and without enhanced CO2 are compared and communicated to a general audience. Atmosphere–ocean interactions are accounted for. To illustrate the method, we attribute the record Australian heat event of October 2015. We find that about half of the October 2015 Australia-wide temperature anomaly is due to the increase in atmospheric CO2 since 1960. This method has the potential to provide attribution statements for forecast events within an outlook period (i.e., before they occur). This will allow for informed messaging to be available as required when an extreme event occurs, which is of particular use to weather and climate services. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy
英文关键词	Anthropogenic effects; Climate models; Coupled models; Experimental design; General circulation models
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Carbon dioxide; Decision making; Forecasting; American meteorological societies; Climate extremes; Copyright informations; Quantitative estimates; Random natural events; Seasonal forecasts; Temperature anomaly; Weather extremes; Climate change; anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; decision making; experimental design; extreme event; general circulation model; seasonal variation; Australia
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178643
作者单位	Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, VIC, Australia; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang G.,Hope P.,Lim E.-P.,et al. An initialized attribution method for extreme events on subseasonal to seasonal time scales[J],2021,34(4).
APA	Wang G.,Hope P.,Lim E.-P.,Hendon H.H.,&Arblaster J.M..(2021).An initialized attribution method for extreme events on subseasonal to seasonal time scales.Journal of Climate,34(4).
MLA	Wang G.,et al."An initialized attribution method for extreme events on subseasonal to seasonal time scales".Journal of Climate 34.4(2021).