气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): U.S. tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea surface temperature

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0342.1
	U.S. tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea surface temperature
	Hall T.M.; Kossin J.P.; Thompson T.; McMahon J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1321
结束页码	1335
卷号	34 期号:4
英文摘要	We use a statistical tropical cyclone (TC) model, the North Atlantic Stochastic Hurricane Model (NASHM), in combination with sea surface temperature (SST) projections from climate models, to estimate regional changes in U.S. TC activity into the 2030s. NASHM is trained on historical variations in TC characteristics with two SST indices: global–tropical mean SST and the difference between tropical North Atlantic Ocean (NA) SST and the rest of the global tropics, often referred to as ‘‘relative SST.’’ Testing confirms the model’s ability to reproduce historical U.S. TC activity as well as to make skillful predictions. When NASHM is driven by SST projections into the 2030s, overall NA annual TC counts increase, and the fractional increase is the greatest at the highest wind intensities. However, an eastward anomaly in mean TC tracks and an eastward shift in TC formation region result in a geographically varied signal in U.S. coastal activity. Florida’s Gulf Coast is projected to see significant increases in TC activity relative to the long-term historical mean, and these increases are fractionally greatest at the highest intensities. By contrast, the northwestern U.S. Gulf Coast and the U.S. East Coast will see little change. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy
英文关键词	North America; Probability forecasts/models/distribution; Risk assessment; Stochastic models; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Ability testing; Atmospheric temperature; Climate models; Hurricanes; Stochastic models; Stochastic systems; Storms; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Tropics; Well testing; American meteorological societies; Coastal activity; Copyright informations; North Atlantic Ocean; Sea surface temperature (SST); Tropical cyclone; Tropical cyclone activity; Wind intensity; Oceanography; climate modeling; regional pattern; risk assessment; sea surface temperature; stochasticity; tropical cyclone; weather forecasting; Atlantic Coast [North America]; Atlantic Coast [United States]; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (North); Florida [United States]; Gulf Coast [United States]; United States
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178639
作者单位	NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information, Madison, WI, United States; Climate Service, Durham, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hall T.M.,Kossin J.P.,Thompson T.,et al. U.S. tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea surface temperature[J],2021,34(4).
APA	Hall T.M.,Kossin J.P.,Thompson T.,&McMahon J..(2021).U.S. tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea surface temperature.Journal of Climate,34(4).
MLA	Hall T.M.,et al."U.S. tropical cyclone activity in the 2030s based on projected changes in tropical sea surface temperature".Journal of Climate 34.4(2021).