气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A continuum approach to understanding changes in the enso

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0027.1
	A continuum approach to understanding changes in the enso–indian monsoon relationship
	Schulte J.; Policelli F.; Zaitchik B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1549
结束页码	1561
卷号	34 期号:4
英文摘要	It is well documented that the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian summer monsoon changes on interdecadal time scales, yet an explanation for the variations is still a subject of debate. Here, using a continuum framework based on one-point partial correlation maps, we show that the ENSO–Indian rainfall relationship is influenced by the gradient of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) across the Niño-3 region. Based on this identified SSTA pattern, a simple trans-Niño-3 (TN3) index is created that explains up to 50% of all-India rainfall variability during the mid- to late monsoon season after the 1960s. It is also shown that the influence of the TN3 pattern on the relationship between common ENSO metrics and all-India rainfall is strongest during the August–September (AS) monsoon subseason and weakest during the June–July subseason. The TN3 pattern accounts for up to 80% of the change and sign reversal in the AS Niño-112–all-India rainfall relationship in recent decades. The 1940s coincides with the intensification of the TN3 pattern and its influence. As the TN3 index is nearly orthogonal to the Niño-3 index, and both are strongly correlated with all-India rainfall, the strengthening TN3 influence must be systematically associated with the weakening Niño-3–all-India relationship in recent decades. This work supports arguments that recent changes in the ENSO–Indian rainfall relationship are not solely related to noise. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy
英文关键词	Asia; Decadal variability; Seasonal forecasting; Statistical forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Atmospheric thermodynamics; Climatology; Oceanography; Surface waters; American meteorological societies; Copyright informations; Indian summer monsoon; Monsoon season; Partial correlation; Rainfall variability; Sea surface temperature anomalies; Southern oscillation; Rain; air-sea interaction; decadal variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; monsoon; sea surface temperature; timescale; weather forecasting; Asia
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178637
作者单位	Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, MD, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Schulte J.,Policelli F.,Zaitchik B.. A continuum approach to understanding changes in the enso–indian monsoon relationship[J],2021,34(4).
APA	Schulte J.,Policelli F.,&Zaitchik B..(2021).A continuum approach to understanding changes in the enso–indian monsoon relationship.Journal of Climate,34(4).
MLA	Schulte J.,et al."A continuum approach to understanding changes in the enso–indian monsoon relationship".Journal of Climate 34.4(2021).