气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future changes in seasonality in east africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0450.1
	Future changes in seasonality in east africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection
	Wainwright C.M.; Marsham J.H.; Rowell D.P.; Finney D.L.; Black E.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	1367
结束页码	1385
卷号	34 期号:4
英文摘要	The East African precipitation seasonal cycle is of significant societal importance, and yet the current generation of coupled global climate models fails to correctly capture this seasonality. The use of convective parameterization schemes is a known source of precipitation bias in such models. Recently, a high-resolution regional model was used to produce the first pan-African climate change simulation that explicitly models convection. Here, this is compared with a corresponding parameterized-convection simulation to explore the effect of the parameterization on representation of East Africa precipitation seasonality. Both models capture current seasonality, although an overestimate in September–October in the parameterized simulation leads to an early bias in the onset of the boreal autumn short rains, associated with higher convective instability and near-surface moist static energy. This bias is removed in the explicit model. Under future climate change both models show the short rains getting later and wetter. For the boreal spring long rains, the explicit convection simulation shows the onset advancing but the parameterized simulation shows little change. Over Uganda and western Kenya both simulations show rainfall increases in the January–February dry season and large increases in boreal summer and autumn rainfall, particularly in the explicit convection model, changing the shape of the seasonal cycle, with potential for pronounced socioeconomic impacts. Interannual variability is similar in both models. Results imply that parameterization of convection may be a source of uncertainty for projections of changes in seasonal timing from global models and that potentially impactful changes in seasonality should be highlighted to users. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society
英文关键词	Africa; Climate change; Convective parameterization; Precipitation; Seasonal cycle
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate models; Parameterization; Rain; American meteorological societies; Climate change simulations; Convection simulations; Convective instabilities; Convective parameterization schemes; Coupled global climate model; Interannual variability; Socio-economic impacts; Climate change; atmospheric general circulation model; climate change; future prospect; parameterization; precipitation (climatology); rainfall; seasonality; Kenya; Uganda
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178626
作者单位	Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, United Kingdom; School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wainwright C.M.,Marsham J.H.,Rowell D.P.,et al. Future changes in seasonality in east africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection[J],2021,34(4).
APA	Wainwright C.M.,Marsham J.H.,Rowell D.P.,Finney D.L.,&Black E..(2021).Future changes in seasonality in east africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection.Journal of Climate,34(4).
MLA	Wainwright C.M.,et al."Future changes in seasonality in east africa from regional simulations with explicit and parameterized convection".Journal of Climate 34.4(2021).