气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0586.1
	Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer
	Krishnamurthy V.; Meixner J.; Stefanova L.; Wang J.; Worthen D.; Moorthi S.; Li B.; Sluka T.; Stan C.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	3273
结束页码	3294
卷号	34 期号:9
英文摘要	The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011-17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1-4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate prediction; Hindcasts; Intraseasonal variability; Operational forecasting; Oscillations; Seasonal forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric pressure; Climatology; Forecasting; Coupled modeling; Data-adaptive method; Forecast errors; Forecast systems; Horizontal winds; Intraseasonal oscillations; National centers for environmental predictions; Southern oscillation; Tropical engineering
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178615
作者单位	Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States; NOAA, NCEP, EMC, College Park, MD, United States; IMSG, NOAA, NCEP, EMC, College Park, MD, United States; Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth Sciences, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Krishnamurthy V.,Meixner J.,Stefanova L.,et al. Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer[J],2021,34(9).
APA	Krishnamurthy V..,Meixner J..,Stefanova L..,Wang J..,Worthen D..,...&Stan C..(2021).Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer.Journal of Climate,34(9).
MLA	Krishnamurthy V.,et al."Sources of subseasonal predictability over CONUS during boreal summer".Journal of Climate 34.9(2021).