气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1013.1
	Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models
	Li C.; Zwiers F.; Zhang X.; Li G.; Sun Y.; Wehner M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	3441
结束页码	3460
卷号	34 期号:9
英文摘要	This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble of simulations. Judged by similarity with reanalyses, the new-generation models simulate the present-day temperature and precipitation extremes reasonably well. In line with previous CMIP simulations, the new simulations continue to project a large-scale picture of more frequent and more intense hot temperature extremes and precipitation extremes and vanishing cold extremes under continued global warming. Changes in temperature extremes outpace changes in global annual mean surface air temperature (GSAT) over most landmasses, while changes in precipitation extremes follow changes in GSAT globally at roughly the Clausius-Clapeyron rate of;7% 8C21. Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes normalized with respect to GSAT do not depend strongly on the choice of forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, and do not vary strongly over time, but with notable regional variations. Over the majority of land regions, the projected intensity increases and relative frequency increases tend to be larger for more extreme hot temperature and precipitation events than for weaker events. To obtain robust estimates of these changes at local scales, large initial-condition ensemble simulations are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling of data from neighboring grid cells within individual simulations can, to some extent, reduce the needed ensemble size. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate change; Extreme events; Precipitation; Temperature
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Sensitivity analysis; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project; Initial condition ensembles; Multi-model ensemble; Precipitation events; Precipitation extremes; Relative frequencies; Surface air temperatures; Temperature extremes; Climate models
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178606
作者单位	Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, Ministry of Education, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada; Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Computational Research Division, Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory, Berkley, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Li C.,Zwiers F.,Zhang X.,et al. Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models[J],2021,34(9).
APA	Li C.,Zwiers F.,Zhang X.,Li G.,Sun Y.,&Wehner M..(2021).Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models.Journal of Climate,34(9).
MLA	Li C.,et al."Changes in annual extremes of daily temperature and precipitation in CMIP6 models".Journal of Climate 34.9(2021).