气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections, impacts, and predictability in North America

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0761.1
	Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections, impacts, and predictability in North America
	Jong B.-T.; Ting M.; Seager R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	3629
结束页码	3643
卷号	34 期号:9
英文摘要	During the summer when an El Niño event is transitioning to a La Niña event, the extratropical teleconnections exert robust warming anomalies over the U.S. Midwest threatening agricultural production. This study assesses the performance of current climate models in capturing the prominent observed extratropical responses over North America during the transitioning La Niña summer, based on atmospheric general circulation model experiments and coupled models from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME). The ensemble mean of the SST-forced experiments across the transitioning La Niña summers does not capture the robust warming in the Midwest. The SST-forced experiments do not produce consistent subtropical western Pacific (WP) negative precipitation anomalies and this leads to the poor simulations of extratropical teleconnections over North America. In the NMME models, with active air-sea interaction, the negative WP precipitation anomalies show better agreement across the models and with observations. However, the downstream wave train pattern and the resulting extratropical responses over North America exhibit large disagreement across the models and are consistently weaker than in observations. Furthermore, in these climate models, an anomalous anticyclone does not robustly translate into a warm anomaly over the Midwest, in disagreement with observations. This work suggests that, during the El Niño to La Niña transitioning summer, active air-sea interaction is important in simulating tropical precipitation over the WP. Nevertheless, skillful representations of the Rossby wave propagation and land-atmosphere processes in climate models are also essential for skillful simulations of extratropical responses over North America. © 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy (www.ametsoc.org/PUBSReuseLicenses).
英文关键词	Climate prediction; ENSO; Model evaluation/performance; North America; Seasonal forecasting; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Agriculture; Climatology; Lanthanum; Mechanical waves; Oceanography; Tropics; Wave propagation; Agricultural productions; Air sea interactions; Atmospheric general circulation models; Downstream waves; Multi-model ensemble; Precipitation anomalies; ROSSBY wave propagation; Tropical precipitation; Climate models
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178605
作者单位	NOAA/Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jong B.-T.,Ting M.,Seager R.. Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections, impacts, and predictability in North America[J],2021,34(9).
APA	Jong B.-T.,Ting M.,&Seager R..(2021).Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections, impacts, and predictability in North America.Journal of Climate,34(9).
MLA	Jong B.-T.,et al."Assessing ENSO summer teleconnections, impacts, and predictability in North America".Journal of Climate 34.9(2021).