气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0703.1
	Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6
	Thackeray C.W.; Hall A.; Zelinka M.D.; Fletcher C.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	3889
结束页码	3905
卷号	34 期号:10
英文摘要	An emergent constraint (EC) is a popular model evaluation technique, which offers the potential to reduce intermodel variability in projections of climate change. Two examples have previously been laid out for future surface albedo feedbacks (SAF) stemming from loss of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover (SAFsnow) and sea ice (SAFice). These processes also have a modern-day analog that occurs each year as snow and sea ice retreat from their seasonal maxima, which is strongly correlated with future SAF across an ensemble of climate models. The newly released CMIP6 ensemble offers the chance to test prior constraints through out-of-sample verification, an important examination of EC robustness. Here, we show that the SAFsnow EC is equally strong in CMIP6 as it was in past generations, while the SAFice EC is also shown to exist in CMIP6, but with different, slightly weaker characteristics. We find that the CMIP6 mean NH SAF exhibits a global feedback of 0.25 6 0.05 W m22 K21, or;61% of the total global albedo feedback, largely in line with prior generations despite its increased climate sensitivity. The NH SAF can be broken down into similar contributions from snow and sea ice over the twenty-first century in CMIP6. Crucially, intermodel variability in seasonal SAFsnow and SAFice is largely unchanged from CMIP5 because of poor outlier simulations of snow cover, surface albedo, and sea ice thickness. These outliers act to mask the noted improvement from many models when it comes to SAFice, and to a lesser extent SAFsnow. Ó 2021 American Meteorological Society. For information regarding reuse of this content and general copyright information, consult the AMS Copyright Policy
英文关键词	Albedo; Climate models; Climate variability; Model evaluation/performance; Sea ice; Snow cover
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climate change; Feedback; Sea ice; Snow; Solar radiation; Statistics; American meteorological societies; Climate sensitivity; Copyright informations; Intermodel variability; Model evaluation; Northern hemisphere; Sea ice retreats; Sea-ice thickness; Climate models
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178576
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Atmospheric, Earth, and Energy Division, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON, Canada
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Thackeray C.W.,Hall A.,Zelinka M.D.,et al. Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6[J],2021,34(10).
APA	Thackeray C.W.,Hall A.,Zelinka M.D.,&Fletcher C.G..(2021).Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6.Journal of Climate,34(10).
MLA	Thackeray C.W.,et al."Assessing prior emergent constraints on surface albedo feedback in CMIP6".Journal of Climate 34.10(2021).