气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Correcting observational biases in sea surface temperature observations removes anomalous warmth during World War II

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0907.1
	Correcting observational biases in sea surface temperature observations removes anomalous warmth during World War II
	Chan D.; Huybers P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4585
结束页码	4602
卷号	34 期号:11
英文摘要	Most historical sea surface temperature (SST) estimates indicate warmer World War II SSTs than expected from forcing and internal climate variability. If real, this World War II warm anomaly (WW2WA) has important implications for decadal variability, but the WW2WA may also arise from incomplete corrections of biases associated with bucket and engine room intake (ERI) measurements. To better assess the origins of the WW2WA, we develop five different historical SST estimates (reconstructions R1–R5). Using uncorrected SST measurements from the International Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) version 3.0 (R1) gives a WW2WA of 0.418C. In contrast, using only buckets (R2) or ERI observations (R3) gives WW2WAs of 0.188 and 0.088C, respectively, implying that uncorrected biases are the primary source of the WW2WA. We then use an extended linear-mixed-effect method to quantify systematic differences between subsets of SSTs and develop groupwise SST adjustments based on differences between pairs of nearby SST measurements. Using all measurements after applying groupwise adjustments (R4) gives a WW2WA of 0.138C [95% confidence interval (c.i.): 0.018–0.268C] and indicates that U.S. and U.K. naval observations are the primary cause of the WW2WA. Finally, nighttime bucket SSTs are found to be warmer than their daytime counterparts during WW2, prompting a daytime-only reconstruction using groupwise adjustments (R5) that has a WW2WA of 0.098C (95% c.i.: 20.018 to 0.188C). R5 is consistent with the range of internal variability found in either the CMIP5 (95% c.i.: 20.108 to 0.108C) or CMIP6 ensembles (95% c.i.: 20.118 to 0.108C). These results support the hypothesis that the WW2WA is an artifact of observational biases, although further data and metadata analyses will be important for confirmation. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Bias; Climate variability; In situ oceanic observations; Sea surface temperature; Ship observations
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric temperature; Binary alloys; Military operations; Submarine geophysics; Surface properties; Surface waters; Confidence interval; Data and metadata; Decadal variability; Internal climate variability; Internal variability; Mixed effects; Primary sources; Sea surface temperature (SST); Oceanography
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178552
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chan D.,Huybers P.. Correcting observational biases in sea surface temperature observations removes anomalous warmth during World War II[J],2021,34(11).
APA	Chan D.,&Huybers P..(2021).Correcting observational biases in sea surface temperature observations removes anomalous warmth during World War II.Journal of Climate,34(11).
MLA	Chan D.,et al."Correcting observational biases in sea surface temperature observations removes anomalous warmth during World War II".Journal of Climate 34.11(2021).