气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): How moist and dry intrusions control the local hydrologic cycle in present and future climates

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0780.1
	How moist and dry intrusions control the local hydrologic cycle in present and future climates
	Smith S.; Staten P.W.; Lu J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4343
结束页码	4359
卷号	34 期号:11
英文摘要	Models disagree on how much the hydrologic cycle could intensify under climate change. These changes are expected to scale with the Clausius–Clapeyron relation but may locally diverge due in part to the uncertain response of the general circulation, causing the hydrologic cycle to inherit this uncertainty. To identify how the circulation contributes, we link circulation changes to changes in the higher moments of the hydrologic cycle using the novel dynamical framework of the local hydrologic cycle, the portion of the hydrologic cycle driven by moist or dry intrusions. We expand this dynamical framework, developing a closed budget that diagnoses thermodynamic, advective, and overturning contributions to future hydrologic cycle changes. In analyzing these changes for the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble, we show that overturning is the main dynamic contributor to the tropical and subtropical annual response, consistent with a weakening of this circulation. In the extratropics, we show that advective contributions, likely from storm track changes, dominate the response. We achieve a cleaner separation between dynamic and thermodynamic contributions through a semiempirical scaling, which reveals the robustness of the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling for the local hydrologic cycle. This scaling also demonstrates the slowing of the local hydrologic cycle and how changing subtropical dynamics asymmetrically impact wave breaking and suppress meridional moisture transport. We conclude that dynamic changes in the subtropics are predominantly responsible for the annual, dynamic response in the extratropics and thus a significant contributor to uncertainty in future projections. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Atmospheric circulation; Climate change; General circulation models; Hydrologic cycle; Moisture/moisture budget; Nonlinear dynamics
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Budget control; Climate change; Climate models; Tropics; Circulation changes; Dynamic changes; Earth system model; Future climate; Future projections; General circulation; Hydrologic cycles; Moisture transport; Hydrology
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178551
作者单位	Indiana University Bloomington, Bloomington, IN, United States; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith S.,Staten P.W.,Lu J.. How moist and dry intrusions control the local hydrologic cycle in present and future climates[J],2021,34(11).
APA	Smith S.,Staten P.W.,&Lu J..(2021).How moist and dry intrusions control the local hydrologic cycle in present and future climates.Journal of Climate,34(11).
MLA	Smith S.,et al."How moist and dry intrusions control the local hydrologic cycle in present and future climates".Journal of Climate 34.11(2021).