气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The response of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones to climate change: Quasi-idealized numerical experiments

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0543.1
	The response of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones to climate change: Quasi-idealized numerical experiments
	Jung C.; Lackmann G.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4361
结束页码	4381
卷号	34 期号:11
英文摘要	This study uses small ensembles of convection-allowing, quasi-idealized simulations to examine the response of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) to climate change. Using HURDAT2 and ERA5 data over a 40-yr period from 1979 to 2018, we developed storm-relative composite fields for past North Atlantic recurving, oceanic ET events. The quasi-idealized present-day simulations are initialized from these composites and run in an aquaplanet domain. A pseudo–global warming approach is used for future simulations: Thermodynamic changes between late twenty-first century and twentieth century, derived from an ensemble of 20 CMIP5 GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are added to the present-day initial and lateral boundary conditions. The composite-initialized present-day simulations exhibit realistic ET characteristics. Future simulations show greater intensity, heavier precipitation, and stronger downstream midlatitude wave train development relative to the present-day case. Specifically, the future ET event is substantially stronger before ET completion, though the system undergoes less reintensification after ET completion. Reductions in lower-tropospheric baroclinicity associated with Arctic amplification could contribute to this result. The future simulation exhibits 3-hourly ensemble-mean precipitation rate increases ranging from;23% to;50%, depending on ET phase and averaging radius. In addition, larger eddy kinetic energy accompanies the future storm, partly created by increased baroclinic conversion, resulting in stronger amplification of downstream energy maxima via intensified ageostrophic geopotential flux convergence and divergence. These results suggest that future TCs undergoing ET could have greater potential to cause high-impact weather in western Europe through both direct and remote processes. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate change; Extratropical transition; Tropical cyclones
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Global warming; Hurricanes; Kinetic energy; Kinetics; Tropics; Downstream energy; Eddy kinetic energy; Extratropical transition; Lateral boundary conditions; Mean precipitation; Numerical experiments; Thermodynamic changes; Twentieth century; Storms
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178539
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign, Urbana, IL, United States; Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jung C.,Lackmann G.M.. The response of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones to climate change: Quasi-idealized numerical experiments[J],2021,34(11).
APA	Jung C.,&Lackmann G.M..(2021).The response of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones to climate change: Quasi-idealized numerical experiments.Journal of Climate,34(11).
MLA	Jung C.,et al."The response of extratropical transition of tropical cyclones to climate change: Quasi-idealized numerical experiments".Journal of Climate 34.11(2021).