气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Subseasonal predictability of arctic ocean sea ice conditions: Bering strait and ekman-driven ocean heat transport

CCPortal

DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0544.1
	Subseasonal predictability of arctic ocean sea ice conditions: Bering strait and ekman-driven ocean heat transport
	Lenetsky J.E.; Tremblay B.; Brunette C.; Meneghello G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4449
结束页码	4462
卷号	34 期号:11
英文摘要	We use ocean observations and reanalyses to investigate the subseasonal predictability of summer and fall sea ice area (SIA) in the western Arctic Ocean associated with lateral ocean heat transport (OHT) through Bering Strait and vertical OHT along the Alaskan coastline from Ekman divergence and upwelling. Results show predictive skill of spring Bering Strait OHT anomalies in the Chukchi Sea and eastern East Siberian Sea for June and July SIA, followed by a sharp drop in predictive skill in August, September, and October and a resurgence of the correlation in November during freeze-up. Fall upwelling of Pacific Water along the Alaskan coastline—a mechanism that was proposed as a preconditioner for lower sea ice concentration (SIC) in the Beaufort Sea the following summer—shows minimal predictive strength on both local and regional scales for any months of the melt season. A statistical hindcast based on May Bering Strait OHT anomalies explains 77% of July Chukchi Sea SIA variance. Using OHT as a predictor of SIA anomalies in the Chukchi Sea improves hindcasts from the simple linear trend by 35% and predictions from spring sea ice thickness anomalies by 24%. This work highlights the importance of ocean heat anomalies for melt season sea ice prediction and provides observational evidence of subseasonal changes in forecast skill observed in model-based forecasts of the Chukchi Sea. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Heat budgets/fluxes; Sea ice; Seasonal forecasting; Statistical forecasting
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Forecasting; Heat transfer; Sea ice; Arctic ocean sea ices; East-siberian seas; Model-based OPC; Ocean heat transport; Ocean observations; Preconditioners; Sea ice concentration; Sea-ice thickness; Oceanography
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178533
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lenetsky J.E.,Tremblay B.,Brunette C.,et al. Subseasonal predictability of arctic ocean sea ice conditions: Bering strait and ekman-driven ocean heat transport[J],2021,34(11).
APA	Lenetsky J.E.,Tremblay B.,Brunette C.,&Meneghello G..(2021).Subseasonal predictability of arctic ocean sea ice conditions: Bering strait and ekman-driven ocean heat transport.Journal of Climate,34(11).
MLA	Lenetsky J.E.,et al."Subseasonal predictability of arctic ocean sea ice conditions: Bering strait and ekman-driven ocean heat transport".Journal of Climate 34.11(2021).