气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Mapping large-scale climate variability to hydrological extremes: An application of the linear inverse model to subseasonal prediction

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DOI	10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0502.1
	Mapping large-scale climate variability to hydrological extremes: An application of the linear inverse model to subseasonal prediction
	Tseng K.-C.; Johnson N.C.; Maloney E.D.; Barnes E.A.; Kapnick S.B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	08948755
起始页码	4207
结束页码	4225
卷号	34 期号:11
英文摘要	The excitation of the Pacific–North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern by the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) has been considered one of the most important predictability sources on subseasonal time scales over the extratropical Pacific and North America. However, until recently, the interactions between tropical heating and other extratropical modes and their relationships to subseasonal prediction have received comparatively little attention. In this study, a linear inverse model (LIM) is applied to examine the tropical–extratropical interactions. The LIM provides a means of calculating the response of a dynamical system to a small forcing by constructing a linear operator from the observed covariability statistics of the system. Given the linear assumptions, it is shown that the PNA is one of a few leading modes over the extratropical Pacific that can be strongly driven by tropical convection while other extratropical modes present at most a weak interaction with tropical convection. In the second part of this study, a two-step linear regression is introduced that leverages a LIM and large-scale climate variability to the prediction of hydrological extremes (e.g., atmospheric rivers) on subseasonal time scales. Consistent with the findings of the first part, most of the predictable signals on subseasonal time scales are determined by the dynamics of the MJO–PNA teleconnection while other extratropical modes are important only at the shortest forecast leads. © 2021 American Meteorological Society.
英文关键词	Climate prediction; Extreme events; Madden-Julian oscillation; Teleconnections
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Climatology; Dynamical systems; Forecasting; Mathematical operators; Time measurement; Tropical engineering; Tropics; Climate variability; Hydrological extremes; Linear inverse models; Linear operators; Teleconnection patterns; Teleconnections; Tropical convection; Weak interactions; Climate models
来源期刊	Journal of Climate
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178532
作者单位	Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tseng K.-C.,Johnson N.C.,Maloney E.D.,et al. Mapping large-scale climate variability to hydrological extremes: An application of the linear inverse model to subseasonal prediction[J],2021,34(11).
APA	Tseng K.-C.,Johnson N.C.,Maloney E.D.,Barnes E.A.,&Kapnick S.B..(2021).Mapping large-scale climate variability to hydrological extremes: An application of the linear inverse model to subseasonal prediction.Journal of Climate,34(11).
MLA	Tseng K.-C.,et al."Mapping large-scale climate variability to hydrological extremes: An application of the linear inverse model to subseasonal prediction".Journal of Climate 34.11(2021).