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DOI | 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2019.101118 |
Analysis of long-term precipitation changes in West Bengal, India: An approach to detect monotonic trends influenced by autocorrelations | |
Datta P.; Das S. | |
发表日期 | 2019 |
ISSN | 03770265 |
卷号 | 88 |
英文摘要 | The precipitation of the entire Indian sub-continent is primarily driven by the monsoon wind system, which throws a tough challenge to model changes due to its natural variabilities. Additionally, the unique geographical location and diverse climatic condition of the Indian state of West Bengal (WB) accelerates this challenge even more. Such a situation can be more complicated if the assumption of randomness in the Mann-Kendall (MK) test is not taken care of. The present study inspects the dynamics of precipitation using the original MK test along with its three modified versions in WB. The modified versions are considered to incorporate all the significant autocorrelation coefficient (ACC) along with the short and long term persistence (STP and LTP) in the time series. Results showed that the presence of significant ACC was more common than the LTP behavior. The STP approach produced similar results to the original MK test, while the LTP approach reduced the number of significant trends. When the series was free from the scaling effect, consideration of all significant ACC gave better result in comparison to the STP approach. The annual precipitation is decreasing in large areas of WB, while the coastal areas are receiving increasing trends, which can intricate the estuarine and coastal processes. The Sub-Himalayan region and the western parts of WB are experiencing significant falling trend in monsoon season. Such a decreasing trend can enhance drought vulnerabilities, especially in the western parts of WB. However, the other three seasons (pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter) witness the maximum number of non-significant trends. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. |
英文关键词 | Autocorrelation; Long-term persistence; Mann-Kendall test; Precipitation; Slope estimation; West Bengal |
语种 | 英语 |
scopus关键词 | Atmospheric thermodynamics; Precipitation (chemical); Annual precipitation; Autocorrelation coefficient; Geographical locations; Long-term persistence; Mann-Kendall test; Precipitation change; Slope estimation; West Bengal; Autocorrelation; annual variation; autocorrelation; estimation method; numerical model; persistence; precipitation (climatology); precipitation intensity; trend analysis; India; West Bengal |
来源期刊 | Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178342 |
作者单位 | Department of Geography, Aryabhatta School of Earth Sciences, Assam University, Diphu CampusAssam, India; Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology KharagpurWest Bengal, India |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Datta P.,Das S.. Analysis of long-term precipitation changes in West Bengal, India: An approach to detect monotonic trends influenced by autocorrelations[J],2019,88. |
APA | Datta P.,&Das S..(2019).Analysis of long-term precipitation changes in West Bengal, India: An approach to detect monotonic trends influenced by autocorrelations.Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,88. |
MLA | Datta P.,et al."Analysis of long-term precipitation changes in West Bengal, India: An approach to detect monotonic trends influenced by autocorrelations".Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 88(2019). |
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