气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013

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DOI	10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2021.101202
	Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013
	George B.; Kutty G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	03770265
卷号	93
英文摘要	Forecast Sensitivity of an extreme rainfall event over the Uttarakhand state located in the Western Himalayas is investigated through Ensemble-based Sensitivity Analysis (ESA). ESA enables the assessment of forecast errors and its relation to the flow fields through linear regression approach. The ensembles are initialized from an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) Data Assimilation in Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model. ESA is then applied to evaluate the dynamics and predictability at two different days of the extreme precipitation episode. Results indicate that the precipitation forecast over Uttarakhand is sensitive to the mid-tropospheric trough and moisture fields for both the days, in general. The day 1 precipitation shows negative sensitivity to the trough over upstream regions of the storm location while in day 2, the sensitive region is found to be located over the southward intruded branch of the mid–tropospheric trough. Perturbations introduced in the initial conditions (IC) over the most sensitive region over the west of the storm location indicate significant variations in the forecast location of precipitation. IC perturbed experiments show that the perturbation amplitude is correlated linearly with predicted change in precipitation, which becomes nonlinear as the forecast length increases. ESA performed on convection-permitting ensembles show that precipitation over the Uttarakhand is mostly non-convective. However, when the location of the response function box is moved north-westward of the Uttarakhand, the sensitivity patterns show signs of convection. © 2021 Elsevier B.V.
英文关键词	EnKF; Extreme rainfall; Predictability; Synoptic and convective-scale processes; WRF
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Integrated circuits; Location; Rain; Sensitivity analysis; Storms; Troposphere; Ensemble Kalman Filter; Extreme precipitation; Forecast sensitivity; Initial conditions; Perturbation amplitude; Precipitation forecast; Response functions; Weather Research and Forecast models; Weather forecasting; amplitude; convective system; data assimilation; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; Kalman filter; mountain region; rainfall; sensitivity analysis; synoptic meteorology; weather forecasting; Himalayas; India; Uttarakhand
来源期刊	Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/178254
作者单位	Department of Earth and Space Sciences, Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology, Valiamala, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	George B.,Kutty G.. Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013[J],2021,93.
APA	George B.,&Kutty G..(2021).Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013.Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans,93.
MLA	George B.,et al."Ensemble sensitivity analysis of an extreme rainfall event over the Himalayas in June 2013".Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 93(2021).